Who Should BYU Root For This Weekend?

This is BYU's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for BYU is 36.5%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.

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Biggest games to watch for BYU

  1. Cincinnati vs West Virginia: Root for Cincinnati

    BYU CFP probability: 37.7% if Cincinnati wins, compared with 35.7% if West Virginia wins. Difference: 2.0% percentage points.

    BYU still has Cincinnati on its schedule, so Cincinnati continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable. The title-game picture also matters: Cincinnati beating West Virginia helps BYU's path to the Big 12 championship because the forced result improves BYU's modeled title-game odds.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  2. Colorado State vs Texas State: Root for Colorado State

    BYU CFP probability: 38.3% if Colorado State wins, compared with 36.1% if Texas State wins. Difference: 2.2% percentage points.

    BYU already beat Colorado State, so Colorado State continuing to win strengthens the value of one of BYU's wins.

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  3. Kansas vs Kansas State: Root for Kansas

    BYU CFP probability: 37.6% if Kansas wins, compared with 36.1% if Kansas State wins. Difference: 1.5% percentage points.

    BYU still has Kansas on its schedule, so Kansas continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable.

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  4. Arizona State vs Texas Tech: Root for Arizona State

    BYU CFP probability: 40.3% if Arizona State wins, compared with 36.5% if Texas Tech wins. Difference: 3.8% percentage points.

    BYU benefits most from Texas Tech, a leading CFP contender, taking the loss. The title-game picture also matters: Texas Tech currently has a better chance than Arizona State to reach the Big 12 title game, so a loss by Texas Tech removes more competition from BYU's conference-title path. Schedule context also supports that outcome: BYU still has Arizona State on its schedule, so Arizona State continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable. If it happens, this would be the single most helpful result of the day for BYU.

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  5. North Carolina vs Duke: Root for North Carolina

    BYU CFP probability: 37.4% if North Carolina wins, compared with 36.3% if Duke wins. Difference: 1.1% percentage points.

    North Carolina plays Notre Dame and TCU, two teams that are also on BYU's schedule. A stronger North Carolina can make those games more valuable to BYU's résumé. However, North Carolina would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to BYU.

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  6. Akron vs Miami (OH): Root for Miami (OH)

    BYU CFP probability: 36.9% if Miami (OH) wins, compared with 36.0% if Akron wins. Difference: 0.9% percentage points.

    Cincinnati already beat Miami (OH); another Miami (OH) win would add value to that earlier result for BYU.

    See this game's national CFP impact