Who Should Indiana Root For This Weekend?
This is Indiana's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for Indiana is 87.5%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.
View the Indiana CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.
Biggest games to watch for Indiana
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Nebraska vs Oregon: Root for Nebraska
Indiana CFP probability: 89.7% if Nebraska wins, compared with 86.4% if Oregon wins. Difference: 3.3% percentage points.
Indiana already beat Nebraska, so Nebraska continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Indiana's wins. However, Nebraska would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Indiana. The title-game picture also matters: Oregon currently has a better chance than Nebraska to reach the Big Ten title game, so a loss by Oregon removes more competition from Indiana's conference-title path. If it happens, this would be the single most helpful result of the day for Indiana.
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Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston: Root for Western Kentucky
Indiana CFP probability: 88.9% if Western Kentucky wins, compared with 86.7% if Sam Houston wins. Difference: 2.2% percentage points.
Indiana already beat Western Kentucky, so Western Kentucky continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Indiana's wins.
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Rutgers vs Maryland: Root for Rutgers
Indiana CFP probability: 89.0% if Rutgers wins, compared with 87.1% if Maryland wins. Difference: 1.9% percentage points.
Indiana already beat Rutgers, so Rutgers continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Indiana's wins. The title-game picture also matters: Rutgers beating Maryland helps Indiana's path to the Big Ten championship because the forced result improves Indiana's modeled title-game odds.
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Notre Dame vs BYU: Root for Notre Dame
Indiana CFP probability: 88.0% if Notre Dame wins, compared with 85.6% if BYU wins. Difference: 2.4% percentage points.
For Indiana, the 1.9-percentage-point downside of a Notre Dame loss matters more than the upside of a routine win. BYU is the smaller at-large threat today, but a win would raise its at-large chances from 15.7% to 46.3%. Notre Dame would remain a major threat even with a loss (90.5%), so keeping BYU down leaves less combined at-large competition for Indiana. However, Notre Dame would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Indiana. A separate schedule factor also helps: A stronger Notre Dame can help the schedule value around Purdue, which also appears on Indiana's schedule.
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Northwestern vs Michigan State: Root for Northwestern
Indiana CFP probability: 87.9% if Northwestern wins, compared with 86.1% if Michigan State wins. Difference: 1.8% percentage points.
Indiana already beat Northwestern, so a Northwestern loss would reduce the résumé value of that win. However, Northwestern would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Indiana. The title-game picture also matters: Northwestern beating Michigan State helps Indiana's path to the Big Ten championship because the forced result improves Indiana's modeled title-game odds.
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Oklahoma State vs Houston: Root for Oklahoma State
Indiana CFP probability: 88.5% if Oklahoma State wins, compared with 87.2% if Houston wins. Difference: 1.3% percentage points.
Houston is the bigger current at-large threat, so a loss by Houston is more valuable to Indiana. However, Oklahoma State would improve its own at-large case with a win, but knocking back Houston matters more to Indiana.