Who Should Kentucky Root For This Weekend?

This is Kentucky's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for Kentucky is 13.9%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.

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Biggest games to watch for Kentucky

  1. Missouri vs Ole Miss: Root for Missouri

    Kentucky CFP probability: 14.8% if Missouri wins, compared with 13.3% if Ole Miss wins. Difference: 1.5% percentage points.

    Kentucky still has Missouri on its schedule, so Missouri continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable. However, Missouri would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Kentucky.

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  2. Mississippi State vs LSU: Root for LSU

    Kentucky CFP probability: 14.1% if LSU wins, compared with 12.1% if Mississippi State wins. Difference: 2.0% percentage points.

    Kentucky already beat LSU, so a LSU loss would reduce the résumé value of that win. However, LSU would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Kentucky.

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  3. Florida vs Texas: Root for Florida

    Kentucky CFP probability: 16.4% if Florida wins, compared with 13.7% if Texas wins. Difference: 2.7% percentage points.

    Kentucky still has Florida on its schedule, so Florida continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable. However, Florida would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Kentucky. If it happens, this would be the single most helpful result of the day for Kentucky.

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  4. Wisconsin vs UCLA: Root for Wisconsin

    Kentucky CFP probability: 14.4% if Wisconsin wins, compared with 13.2% if UCLA wins. Difference: 1.2% percentage points.

    UCLA is the bigger current at-large threat, so a loss by UCLA is more valuable to Kentucky. However, Wisconsin would improve its own at-large case with a win, but knocking back UCLA matters more to Kentucky.

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  5. The Citadel vs Texas A&M: Root for Texas A&M

    Kentucky CFP probability: 14.0% if Texas A&M wins, compared with 12.0% if The Citadel wins. Difference: 2.0% percentage points.

    Kentucky already beat Texas A&M, so a Texas A&M loss would reduce the résumé value of that win.

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  6. Oklahoma State vs Houston: Root for Oklahoma State

    Kentucky CFP probability: 14.8% if Oklahoma State wins, compared with 13.6% if Houston wins. Difference: 1.2% percentage points.

    Houston is the bigger current at-large threat, so a loss by Houston is more valuable to Kentucky. However, Oklahoma State would improve its own at-large case with a win, but knocking back Houston matters more to Kentucky.

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  7. Northwestern vs Michigan State: Root for Michigan State

    Kentucky CFP probability: 14.9% if Michigan State wins, compared with 13.7% if Northwestern wins. Difference: 1.2% percentage points.

    The main value for Kentucky is knocking back Northwestern, currently a legitimate at-large contender in the at-large race.

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  8. Louisville vs Syracuse: Root for Louisville

    Kentucky CFP probability: 14.3% if Louisville wins, compared with 13.5% if Syracuse wins. Difference: 0.8% percentage points.

    Kentucky still has Louisville on its schedule, so Louisville continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable.

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