Who Should Memphis Root For This Weekend?

This is Memphis's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for Memphis is 3.9%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.

View the Memphis CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.

Biggest games to watch for Memphis

  1. Arkansas State vs Southern Miss: Root for Arkansas State

    Memphis CFP probability: 4.8% if Arkansas State wins, compared with 3.7% if Southern Miss wins. Difference: 1.1% percentage points.

    Memphis already beat Arkansas State, so Arkansas State continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Memphis's wins. If it happens, this is tied for the most helpful result of the day for Memphis.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  2. Nebraska vs Oregon: Root for Nebraska

    Memphis CFP probability: 4.8% if Nebraska wins, compared with 3.6% if Oregon wins. Difference: 1.2% percentage points.

    Nebraska winning helps Memphis mainly by improving its path to an automatic bid. That benefit outweighs the small downside to Memphis's at-large chances. Oregon connects to Memphis's schedule through Boise State, so a stronger Oregon can add some value to Memphis's schedule too. If it happens, this is tied for the most helpful result of the day for Memphis.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  3. Navy vs UTSA: Root for Navy

    Memphis CFP probability: 4.7% if Navy wins, compared with 3.7% if UTSA wins. Difference: 1.0% percentage points.

    Memphis still has Navy on its schedule, so Navy continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable. The title-game picture also matters: UTSA currently has a better chance than Navy to reach the American Athletic title game, so a loss by UTSA removes more competition from Memphis's conference-title path.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  4. Florida Atlantic vs Army: Root for Army

    Memphis CFP probability: 4.3% if Army wins, compared with 3.4% if Florida Atlantic wins. Difference: 0.9% percentage points.

    Memphis still has Army on its schedule, so Army continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  5. Fresno State vs San Diego State: Root for San Diego State

    Memphis CFP probability: 4.6% if San Diego State wins, compared with 3.8% if Fresno State wins. Difference: 0.8% percentage points.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  6. Georgia State vs James Madison: Root for Georgia State

    Memphis CFP probability: 4.7% if Georgia State wins, compared with 3.8% if James Madison wins. Difference: 0.9% percentage points.

    A James Madison loss hurts its chances of winning the Sun Belt, weakening one of Memphis's competitors for the fifth automatic bid. A separate schedule factor also helps: Georgia State plays Arkansas State, and Memphis plays Arkansas State. A stronger Georgia State can make Arkansas State's schedule look better, increasing the value of Memphis's game with Arkansas State.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  7. Western Michigan vs Central Michigan: Root for Central Michigan

    Memphis CFP probability: 4.6% if Central Michigan wins, compared with 3.9% if Western Michigan wins. Difference: 0.7% percentage points.

    See this game's national CFP impact