Who Should Northwestern Root For This Weekend?
This is Northwestern's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for Northwestern is 9.2%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.
View the Northwestern CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.
Biggest games to watch for Northwestern
-
Ball State vs Bowling Green: Root for Ball State
Northwestern CFP probability: 10.9% if Ball State wins, compared with 8.9% if Bowling Green wins. Difference: 2.0% percentage points.
Northwestern already beat Ball State, so Ball State continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Northwestern's wins. If it happens, this is tied for the most helpful result of the day for Northwestern.
-
Rutgers vs Maryland: Root for Rutgers
Northwestern CFP probability: 10.2% if Rutgers wins, compared with 8.7% if Maryland wins. Difference: 1.5% percentage points.
Northwestern still has Rutgers on its schedule, so Rutgers continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable.
-
Penn State vs Michigan: Root for Penn State
Northwestern CFP probability: 9.8% if Penn State wins, compared with 8.5% if Michigan wins. Difference: 1.3% percentage points.
Northwestern already beat Penn State, so Penn State continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Northwestern's wins.
-
Nebraska vs Oregon: Root for Oregon
Northwestern CFP probability: 10.0% if Oregon wins, compared with 8.6% if Nebraska wins. Difference: 1.4% percentage points.
Northwestern still has Oregon on its schedule, so Oregon continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable. However, Oregon would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Northwestern.
-
Notre Dame vs BYU: Root for Notre Dame
Northwestern CFP probability: 9.5% if Notre Dame wins, compared with 7.6% if BYU wins. Difference: 1.9% percentage points.
For Northwestern, the 1.6-percentage-point downside of a Notre Dame loss matters more than the upside of a routine win. BYU is the smaller at-large threat today, but a win would raise its at-large chances from 15.7% to 46.3%. Notre Dame would remain a major threat even with a loss (90.5%), so keeping BYU down leaves less combined at-large competition for Northwestern. However, Notre Dame would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Northwestern. A separate schedule factor also helps: A stronger Notre Dame can help the schedule value around Michigan State, which also appears on Northwestern's schedule.
-
Utah vs Colorado: Root for Colorado
Northwestern CFP probability: 10.9% if Colorado wins, compared with 9.1% if Utah wins. Difference: 1.8% percentage points.
Utah is a major at-large threat, making a loss by Utah the clearest benefit to Northwestern. Schedule context also supports that outcome: Northwestern already beat Colorado, so Colorado continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Northwestern's wins. If it happens, this is tied for the most helpful result of the day for Northwestern.