Who Should Ohio State Root For This Weekend?
This is Ohio State's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for Ohio State is 78.7%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.
View the Ohio State CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.
Biggest games to watch for Ohio State
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Notre Dame vs BYU: Root for Notre Dame
Ohio State CFP probability: 79.0% if Notre Dame wins, compared with 76.7% if BYU wins. Difference: 2.3% percentage points.
For Ohio State, the 2.0-percentage-point downside of a Notre Dame loss matters more than the upside of a routine win. BYU is the smaller at-large threat today, but a win would raise its at-large chances from 15.7% to 46.3%. Notre Dame would remain a major threat even with a loss (90.5%), so keeping BYU down leaves less combined at-large competition for Ohio State. However, Notre Dame would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Ohio State.
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Oklahoma State vs Houston: Root for Oklahoma State
Ohio State CFP probability: 80.2% if Oklahoma State wins, compared with 78.4% if Houston wins. Difference: 1.8% percentage points.
Houston is the bigger current at-large threat, so a loss by Houston is more valuable to Ohio State. However, Oklahoma State would improve its own at-large case with a win, but knocking back Houston matters more to Ohio State. A separate schedule factor also helps: Ohio State's schedule connects to Oklahoma State through Oregon; an Oklahoma State win can make that shared opponent more valuable.
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Florida vs Texas: Root for Florida
Ohio State CFP probability: 80.1% if Florida wins, compared with 78.7% if Texas wins. Difference: 1.4% percentage points.
Texas is a leading CFP contender, making a loss by Texas the clearest benefit to Ohio State. However, Ohio State already lost to Texas, so Texas continuing to win would make that loss look better too.
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Utah vs Colorado: Root for Colorado
Ohio State CFP probability: 80.0% if Colorado wins, compared with 78.6% if Utah wins. Difference: 1.4% percentage points.
Utah is a major at-large threat, making a loss by Utah the clearest benefit to Ohio State. A separate factor: Northwestern owns an earlier win over Colorado. A stronger Colorado would improve the value of that result for Ohio State.
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The Citadel vs Texas A&M: Root for The Citadel
Ohio State CFP probability: 79.9% if The Citadel wins, compared with 78.7% if Texas A&M wins. Difference: 1.2% percentage points.
Texas A&M still has a very slim at-large path (0.2%), and a loss would reduce it to 0.0%, removing a small amount of competition from Ohio State's path. Texas A&M connects to Ohio State's schedule through Texas, so a stronger Texas A&M can add some value to Ohio State's schedule too.