Who Should Oklahoma Root For This Weekend?
This is Oklahoma's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for Oklahoma is 14.5%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.
View the Oklahoma CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.
Biggest games to watch for Oklahoma
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Alabama vs Tennessee: Root for Alabama
Oklahoma CFP probability: 15.0% if Alabama wins, compared with 12.6% if Tennessee wins. Difference: 2.4% percentage points.
Oklahoma mostly needs Alabama to take care of business because a loss would lower Oklahoma's CFP chances by 1.9 percentage points. Tennessee is the smaller at-large threat today, but a win would raise its at-large chances from 13.3% to 28.0%. Alabama would remain a major threat even with a loss (48.0%), so keeping Tennessee down leaves less combined at-large competition for Oklahoma. However, Alabama would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Oklahoma. A separate schedule factor also helps: Alabama has 5 schedule connections to Oklahoma. A stronger Alabama can make those games more valuable to Oklahoma's résumé. If it happens, this would be the single most helpful result of the day for Oklahoma.
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Florida vs Texas: Root for Texas
Oklahoma CFP probability: 14.8% if Texas wins, compared with 13.6% if Florida wins. Difference: 1.2% percentage points.
Oklahoma already beat Texas, so Texas continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Oklahoma's wins. However, Texas would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Oklahoma. Oklahoma still has Florida on its schedule, so a stronger Florida would make that future matchup more valuable too.