Who Should Oregon Root For This Weekend?
This is Oregon's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for Oregon is 17.9%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.
View the Oregon CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.
Biggest games to watch for Oregon
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Oklahoma State vs Houston: Root for Oklahoma State
Oregon CFP probability: 19.9% if Oklahoma State wins, compared with 17.0% if Houston wins. Difference: 2.9% percentage points.
Oregon already lost to Oklahoma State, so Oklahoma State continuing to win makes that loss look better on Oregon's résumé. However, Oklahoma State would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Oregon.
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Washington vs Purdue: Root for Washington
Oregon CFP probability: 18.8% if Washington wins, compared with 17.2% if Purdue wins. Difference: 1.6% percentage points.
Oregon still has Washington on its schedule, so Washington continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable.
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Notre Dame vs BYU: Root for Notre Dame
Oregon CFP probability: 18.1% if Notre Dame wins, compared with 16.0% if BYU wins. Difference: 2.1% percentage points.
For Oregon, the 1.9-percentage-point downside of a Notre Dame loss matters more than the upside of a routine win. BYU is the smaller at-large threat today, but a win would raise its at-large chances from 15.7% to 46.3%. Notre Dame would remain a major threat even with a loss (90.5%), so keeping BYU down leaves less combined at-large competition for Oregon. However, Notre Dame would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Oregon. A separate schedule factor also helps: A stronger Notre Dame can help the schedule value around Michigan State, which also appears on Oregon's schedule.
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Utah vs Colorado: Root for Colorado
Oregon CFP probability: 19.8% if Colorado wins, compared with 17.7% if Utah wins. Difference: 2.1% percentage points.
Utah is a major at-large threat, making a loss by Utah the clearest benefit to Oregon. A separate factor: Northwestern owns an earlier win over Colorado. A stronger Colorado would improve the value of that result for Oregon.
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Arizona State vs Texas Tech: Root for Arizona State
Oregon CFP probability: 20.6% if Arizona State wins, compared with 17.9% if Texas Tech wins. Difference: 2.7% percentage points.
Oregon benefits most from Texas Tech, a leading CFP contender, taking the loss. If it happens, this would be the single most helpful result of the day for Oregon.
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Florida vs Texas: Root for Florida
Oregon CFP probability: 19.4% if Florida wins, compared with 17.6% if Texas wins. Difference: 1.8% percentage points.
Texas is the bigger current at-large threat, so a loss by Texas is more valuable to Oregon. However, Florida would improve its own at-large case with a win, but knocking back Texas matters more to Oregon. Texas connects to Oregon's schedule through Ohio State, so a stronger Texas can add some value to Oregon's schedule too.
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Troy vs Louisiana: Root for Louisiana
Oregon CFP probability: 18.1% if Louisiana wins, compared with 17.4% if Troy wins. Difference: 0.7% percentage points.
USC already beat Louisiana; another Louisiana win would add value to that earlier result for Oregon.
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The Citadel vs Texas A&M: Root for The Citadel
Oregon CFP probability: 19.0% if The Citadel wins, compared with 17.8% if Texas A&M wins. Difference: 1.2% percentage points.
Texas A&M still has a very slim at-large path (0.2%), and a loss would reduce it to 0.0%, removing a small amount of competition from Oregon's path.
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Western Michigan vs Central Michigan: Root for Western Michigan
Oregon CFP probability: 18.1% if Western Michigan wins, compared with 17.4% if Central Michigan wins. Difference: 0.7% percentage points.
Western Michigan plays Boise State and Michigan, two teams that are also on Oregon's schedule. A stronger Western Michigan can make those games more valuable to Oregon's résumé.