Who Should Texas Root For This Weekend?
This is Texas's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for Texas is 83.7%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.
View the Texas CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.
Biggest games to watch for Texas
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Alabama vs Tennessee: Root for Tennessee
Texas CFP probability: 84.9% if Tennessee wins, compared with 83.4% if Alabama wins. Difference: 1.5% percentage points.
Texas already beat Tennessee, so Tennessee continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Texas's wins. However, Tennessee would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Texas. The title-game picture also matters: Alabama currently has a better chance than Tennessee to reach the SEC title game, so a loss by Alabama removes more competition from Texas's conference-title path. If it happens, this would be the single most helpful result of the day for Texas.
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Notre Dame vs BYU: Root for Notre Dame
Texas CFP probability: 83.8% if Notre Dame wins, compared with 82.6% if BYU wins. Difference: 1.2% percentage points.
For Texas, the 1.1-percentage-point downside of a Notre Dame loss matters more than the upside of a routine win. BYU is the smaller at-large threat today, but a win would raise its at-large chances from 15.7% to 46.3%. Notre Dame would remain a major threat even with a loss (90.5%), so keeping BYU down leaves less combined at-large competition for Texas. However, Notre Dame would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Texas.