Who Should UCLA Root For This Weekend?
This is UCLA's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for UCLA is 25.8%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.
View the UCLA CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.
Biggest games to watch for UCLA
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Nebraska vs Oregon: Root for Oregon
UCLA CFP probability: 27.9% if Oregon wins, compared with 22.5% if Nebraska wins. Difference: 5.4% percentage points.
UCLA already beat Oregon, so Oregon continuing to win strengthens the value of one of UCLA's wins. However, Oregon would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to UCLA. The title-game picture also matters: Oregon beating Nebraska helps UCLA's path to the Big Ten championship because the forced result improves UCLA's modeled title-game odds.
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Northwestern vs Michigan State: Root for Michigan State
UCLA CFP probability: 28.8% if Michigan State wins, compared with 25.1% if Northwestern wins. Difference: 3.7% percentage points.
The main value for UCLA is knocking back Northwestern, currently a legitimate at-large contender in the at-large race. The title-game picture also matters: Northwestern currently has a better chance than Michigan State to reach the Big Ten title game, so a loss by Northwestern removes more competition from UCLA's conference-title path. Schedule context also supports that outcome: UCLA still has Michigan State on its schedule, so Michigan State continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable. If it happens, this would be the single most helpful result of the day for UCLA.
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Penn State vs Michigan: Root for Michigan
UCLA CFP probability: 27.0% if Michigan wins, compared with 24.6% if Penn State wins. Difference: 2.4% percentage points.
UCLA still has Michigan on its schedule, so Michigan continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable.
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Rutgers vs Maryland: Root for Maryland
UCLA CFP probability: 26.9% if Maryland wins, compared with 24.3% if Rutgers wins. Difference: 2.6% percentage points.
UCLA already beat Maryland, so Maryland continuing to win strengthens the value of one of UCLA's wins.
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Notre Dame vs BYU: Root for Notre Dame
UCLA CFP probability: 26.3% if Notre Dame wins, compared with 22.5% if BYU wins. Difference: 3.8% percentage points.
For UCLA, the 3.3-percentage-point downside of a Notre Dame loss matters more than the upside of a routine win. BYU is the smaller at-large threat today, but a win would raise its at-large chances from 15.7% to 46.3%. Notre Dame would remain a major threat even with a loss (90.5%), so keeping BYU down leaves less combined at-large competition for UCLA. However, Notre Dame would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to UCLA. A separate schedule factor also helps: Notre Dame has 3 schedule connections to UCLA. A stronger Notre Dame can make those games more valuable to UCLA's résumé.
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Washington vs Purdue: Root for Purdue
UCLA CFP probability: 26.9% if Purdue wins, compared with 24.6% if Washington wins. Difference: 2.3% percentage points.
UCLA already beat Purdue, so Purdue continuing to win strengthens the value of one of UCLA's wins.
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Oklahoma State vs Houston: Root for Oklahoma State
UCLA CFP probability: 27.6% if Oklahoma State wins, compared with 24.9% if Houston wins. Difference: 2.7% percentage points.
Houston is the bigger current at-large threat, so a loss by Houston is more valuable to UCLA. However, Oklahoma State would improve its own at-large case with a win, but knocking back Houston matters more to UCLA. A separate schedule factor also helps: UCLA's schedule connects to Oklahoma State through Oregon; an Oklahoma State win can make that shared opponent more valuable.
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Nevada vs North Dakota State: Root for Nevada
UCLA CFP probability: 28.7% if Nevada wins, compared with 25.7% if North Dakota State wins. Difference: 3.0% percentage points.
UCLA still has Nevada on its schedule, so Nevada continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable.
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Fresno State vs San Diego State: Root for San Diego State
UCLA CFP probability: 28.0% if San Diego State wins, compared with 25.6% if Fresno State wins. Difference: 2.4% percentage points.
UCLA already beat San Diego State, so San Diego State continuing to win strengthens the value of one of UCLA's wins.
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Wake Forest vs California: Root for California
UCLA CFP probability: 28.4% if California wins, compared with 25.5% if Wake Forest wins. Difference: 2.9% percentage points.
The main value for UCLA is knocking back Wake Forest, currently a fringe at-large contender in the at-large race. Schedule context also supports that outcome: UCLA already beat California, so California continuing to win strengthens the value of one of UCLA's wins.