Who Should USC Root For This Weekend?

This is USC's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for USC is 18.7%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.

View the USC CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.

Biggest games to watch for USC

  1. Oklahoma State vs Houston: Root for Oklahoma State

    USC CFP probability: 21.1% if Oklahoma State wins, compared with 18.1% if Houston wins. Difference: 3.0% percentage points.

    Houston is the bigger current at-large threat, so a loss by Houston is more valuable to USC. However, Oklahoma State would improve its own at-large case with a win, but knocking back Houston matters more to USC. A separate schedule factor also helps: USC's schedule connects to Oklahoma State through Oregon; an Oklahoma State win can make that shared opponent more valuable.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  2. Penn State vs Michigan: Root for Penn State

    USC CFP probability: 20.3% if Penn State wins, compared with 18.2% if Michigan wins. Difference: 2.1% percentage points.

    USC already beat Penn State, so Penn State continuing to win strengthens the value of one of USC's wins.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  3. San José State vs UTEP: Root for San José State

    USC CFP probability: 19.2% if San José State wins, compared with 17.6% if UTEP wins. Difference: 1.6% percentage points.

    USC already beat San José State, so San José State continuing to win strengthens the value of one of USC's wins.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  4. Troy vs Louisiana: Root for Louisiana

    USC CFP probability: 19.2% if Louisiana wins, compared with 18.0% if Troy wins. Difference: 1.2% percentage points.

    USC already beat Louisiana, so Louisiana continuing to win strengthens the value of one of USC's wins.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  5. Fresno State vs San Diego State: Root for Fresno State

    USC CFP probability: 19.5% if Fresno State wins, compared with 17.9% if San Diego State wins. Difference: 1.6% percentage points.

    USC already beat Fresno State, so Fresno State continuing to win strengthens the value of one of USC's wins.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  6. Utah vs Colorado: Root for Colorado

    USC CFP probability: 20.3% if Colorado wins, compared with 18.4% if Utah wins. Difference: 1.9% percentage points.

    Utah is a major at-large threat, making a loss by Utah the clearest benefit to USC. A separate factor: Colorado has 6 3-step schedule connections to USC, so a stronger Colorado can slightly help USC's strength of schedule.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  7. Tulsa vs Rice: Root for Rice

    USC CFP probability: 19.2% if Rice wins, compared with 18.5% if Tulsa wins. Difference: 0.7% percentage points.

    Fresno State already beat Rice; another Rice win would add value to that earlier result for USC.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  8. TCU vs Baylor: Root for TCU

    USC CFP probability: 19.4% if TCU wins, compared with 18.7% if Baylor wins. Difference: 0.7% percentage points.

    USC benefits most from Baylor, a fringe at-large contender, taking the loss.

    See this game's national CFP impact

  9. Arizona State vs Texas Tech: Root for Arizona State

    USC CFP probability: 20.7% if Arizona State wins, compared with 18.8% if Texas Tech wins. Difference: 1.9% percentage points.

    Either result helps USC, but Arizona State is the better outcome. USC benefits most from Texas Tech, a leading CFP contender, taking the loss.

    See this game's national CFP impact