Who Should Iowa Root For This Weekend?
This is Iowa's Week 7 college football rooting guide, based on published pregame simulations. The model's starting CFP probability for Iowa is 18.4%. The outcomes shown below compare each game separately; they are not cumulative forecasts, live CFP odds, or official committee projections.
View the Iowa CFP outlook and schedule. Choose a different team from the selector to refresh this guide.
Biggest games to watch for Iowa
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Wisconsin vs UCLA: Root for Wisconsin
Iowa CFP probability: 20.8% if Wisconsin wins, compared with 17.6% if UCLA wins. Difference: 3.2% percentage points.
Iowa still has Wisconsin on its schedule, so Wisconsin continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable. However, Wisconsin would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Iowa. If it happens, this would be the single most helpful result of the day for Iowa.
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Ohio State vs Indiana: Root for Ohio State
Iowa CFP probability: 19.6% if Ohio State wins, compared with 17.4% if Indiana wins. Difference: 2.2% percentage points.
Iowa already lost to Ohio State, so Ohio State continuing to win makes that loss look better on Iowa's résumé. However, Ohio State would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Iowa.
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Nebraska vs Oregon: Root for Nebraska
Iowa CFP probability: 20.1% if Nebraska wins, compared with 17.9% if Oregon wins. Difference: 2.2% percentage points.
Iowa still has Nebraska on its schedule, so Nebraska continuing to win would make that matchup more valuable. However, Nebraska would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Iowa.
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Notre Dame vs BYU: Root for Notre Dame
Iowa CFP probability: 19.2% if Notre Dame wins, compared with 16.1% if BYU wins. Difference: 3.1% percentage points.
BYU is the smaller at-large threat today, but a win would raise its at-large chances from 15.7% to 46.3%. Notre Dame would remain a major threat even with a loss (90.5%), so keeping BYU down leaves less combined at-large competition for Iowa. However, Notre Dame would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Iowa. A separate schedule factor also helps: Notre Dame plays Purdue and Wisconsin, two teams that are also on Iowa's schedule. A stronger Notre Dame can make those games more valuable to Iowa's résumé.
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Northern Illinois vs Wyoming: Root for Northern Illinois
Iowa CFP probability: 19.5% if Northern Illinois wins, compared with 17.5% if Wyoming wins. Difference: 2.0% percentage points.
Iowa already beat Northern Illinois, so Northern Illinois continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Iowa's wins.
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Penn State vs Michigan: Root for Michigan
Iowa CFP probability: 19.1% if Michigan wins, compared with 17.6% if Penn State wins. Difference: 1.5% percentage points.
Iowa already beat Michigan, so Michigan continuing to win strengthens the value of one of Iowa's wins.
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Northwestern vs Michigan State: Root for Northwestern
Iowa CFP probability: 18.4% if Northwestern wins, compared with 16.9% if Michigan State wins. Difference: 1.5% percentage points.
A Northwestern loss would reduce the résumé value of Iowa's future matchup with Northwestern. However, Northwestern would also improve its own at-large case, which offsets part of that benefit to Iowa.
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Utah vs Colorado: Root for Colorado
Iowa CFP probability: 19.9% if Colorado wins, compared with 18.5% if Utah wins. Difference: 1.4% percentage points.
Either result helps Iowa, but Colorado is the better outcome. Utah is a major at-large threat, making a loss by Utah the clearest benefit to Iowa. A separate factor: Northwestern owns an earlier win over Colorado. A stronger Colorado would improve the value of that result for Iowa.