College Football Playoff National Impact

See which Week 7 games could reshape the national CFP race most. Rankings combine modeled changes across all FBS teams with matchup competitiveness; they are pregame model estimates, not official CFP or sportsbook probabilities.

Games with the biggest national CFP impact

  1. #1 Nebraska vs Oregon
    2026-10-17 04:00 UTC; Oregon -7. Nebraska 18.5% current CFP (30.3% with a win; 7.7% with a loss); Oregon 17.9% current CFP (24.3% with a win; 4.6% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: UCLA 5.4%.
  2. #2 Alabama vs Tennessee
    2026-10-17 19:30 UTC; Alabama -6.5. Alabama 77.1% current CFP (88.0% with a win; 53.6% with a loss); Tennessee 14.7% current CFP (31.6% with a win; 6.9% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Oklahoma 2.4%.
  3. #3 Ohio State vs Indiana
    2026-10-17 16:00 UTC; Ohio State -3. Ohio State 78.7% current CFP (92.0% with a win; 66.1% with a loss); Indiana 87.5% current CFP (97.2% with a win; 78.9% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Iowa 2.2%.
  4. #4 Notre Dame vs BYU
    2026-10-17 23:30 UTC; Notre Dame -10.5. Notre Dame 98.4% current CFP (99.7% with a win; 90.5% with a loss); BYU 36.5% current CFP (66.8% with a win; 30.6% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Utah 6.4%.
  5. #5 Wisconsin vs UCLA
    2026-10-17 04:00 UTC; UCLA -3.5. Wisconsin 7.6% current CFP (12.7% with a win; 1.8% with a loss); UCLA 25.8% current CFP (34.4% with a win; 11.6% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Iowa 3.2%.
  6. #6 Oklahoma State vs Houston
    2026-10-17 23:30 UTC; Houston -4.5. Oklahoma State 4.3% current CFP (10.9% with a win; 2.2% with a loss); Houston 42.0% current CFP (49.2% with a win; 16.8% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Utah 3.5%.
  7. #7 Missouri vs Ole Miss
    2026-10-17 19:30 UTC; Ole Miss -6. Missouri 16.4% current CFP (25.8% with a win; 8.0% with a loss); Ole Miss 19.2% current CFP (25.3% with a win; 7.1% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Kentucky 1.5%.
  8. #8 Kentucky vs Oklahoma
    2026-10-17 23:30 UTC; Oklahoma -6.5. Kentucky 13.9% current CFP (24.6% with a win; 6.6% with a loss); Oklahoma 14.5% current CFP (17.1% with a win; 4.7% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Tennessee 3.2%.
  9. #9 Mississippi State vs LSU
    2026-10-17 16:00 UTC; LSU -10.5. Mississippi State 5.8% current CFP (18.7% with a win; 2.6% with a loss); LSU 18.1% current CFP (20.2% with a win; 4.4% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Tennessee 2.6%.
  10. #10 Florida vs Texas
    2026-10-17 16:00 UTC; Texas -9.5. Florida 3.0% current CFP (12.6% with a win; 1.6% with a loss); Texas 83.7% current CFP (87.8% with a win; 60.3% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Kentucky 2.7%.
  11. #11 Utah vs Colorado
    2026-10-18 02:15 UTC; Utah -16.5. Utah 59.3% current CFP (61.5% with a win; 32.6% with a loss); Colorado 0.0% current CFP (0.0% with a win; 0.0% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: Oklahoma State 2.6%.
  12. #12 Northwestern vs Michigan State
    2026-10-17 16:00 UTC; Northwestern -8.5. Northwestern 9.2% current CFP (10.3% with a win; 1.7% with a loss); Michigan State 0.0% current CFP (0.0% with a win; 0.0% with a loss). Biggest other-team swing: UCLA 3.7%.

Every supported Week 7 game