2026 College Football Playoff Odds by Team
Week 10 pregame model-estimated CFP probabilities for all FBS teams, including automatic-bid and at-large chances. These are not sportsbook or official CFP probabilities.
Results incorporated through Week 9.
| Team | Record | CFP odds | Automatic bid | At-large |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 8-0 | 98.7% | 76.3% | 22.4% |
| Indiana | 8-1 | 88.9% | 36.1% | 52.8% |
| Notre Dame | 7-1 | 87.7% | 0.0% | 87.7% |
| Georgia | 7-1 | 84.9% | 41.9% | 43.0% |
| Utah | 8-0 | 83.4% | 45.6% | 37.8% |
| Alabama | 6-2 | 76.5% | 15.8% | 60.7% |
| Ohio State | 6-2 | 69.8% | 45.7% | 24.1% |
| Texas | 6-2 | 62.2% | 7.1% | 55.1% |
| Boise State | 7-1 | 56.8% | 56.0% | 0.8% |
| BYU | 7-1 | 51.4% | 15.6% | 35.8% |
| Ole Miss | 6-2 | 50.4% | 12.5% | 37.9% |
| LSU | 6-2 | 49.1% | 12.9% | 36.2% |
| UCLA | 8-0 | 45.5% | 8.3% | 37.2% |
| Wake Forest | 7-1 | 45.3% | 19.6% | 25.7% |
| Texas Tech | 7-1 | 44.8% | 24.2% | 20.6% |
| Houston | 6-2 | 37.1% | 5.9% | 31.2% |
| Kentucky | 7-1 | 26.3% | 5.0% | 21.3% |
| Tennessee | 6-2 | 26.2% | 3.0% | 23.2% |
| UTSA | 7-1 | 20.1% | 19.1% | 1.0% |
| New Mexico | 7-1 | 18.1% | 17.5% | 0.6% |
| Iowa | 6-2 | 12.7% | 0.6% | 12.1% |
| Arizona | 6-2 | 12.4% | 4.9% | 7.5% |
| USC | 7-2 | 9.1% | 3.2% | 5.9% |
| South Carolina | 5-3 | 7.5% | 0.3% | 7.2% |
| Missouri | 6-2 | 7.0% | 0.9% | 6.1% |
| Oregon | 5-3 | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Florida | 5-3 | 4.5% | 0.4% | 4.1% |
| Liberty | 7-1 | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| North Texas | 6-2 | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Oklahoma State | 5-3 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| SMU | 6-2 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisville | 5-3 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Baylor | 5-3 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Wisconsin | 5-3 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Memphis | 7-2 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Northwestern | 6-2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana Tech | 6-2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma | 4-4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clemson | 5-3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Minnesota | 5-3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina | 4-4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| South Florida | 6-2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Virginia Tech | 6-2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Air Force | 6-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akron | 1-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| App State | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arizona State | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arkansas State | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Army | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Auburn | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ball State | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Boston College | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bowling Green | 2-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buffalo | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| California | 3-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Michigan | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte | 1-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cincinnati | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coastal Carolina | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado State | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Delaware | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duke | 6-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| East Carolina | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastern Michigan | 4-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida Atlantic | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida International | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florida State | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fresno State | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia State | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Georgia Tech | 2-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hawai'i | 2-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Illinois | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iowa State | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacksonville State | 6-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Madison | 7-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kansas State | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennesaw State | 2-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kent State | 3-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louisiana | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marshall | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maryland | 2-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miami (OH) | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michigan | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michigan State | 2-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Middle Tennessee | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mississippi State | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Missouri State | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Navy | 2-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NC State | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nebraska | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nevada | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Mexico State | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North Dakota State | 7-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northern Illinois | 0-8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ohio | 6-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Old Dominion | 2-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oregon State | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Penn State | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pittsburgh | 6-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Purdue | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rice | 1-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rutgers | 2-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sacramento State | 2-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston | 1-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Diego State | 4-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San José State | 4-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Alabama | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southern Miss | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stanford | 4-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Syracuse | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TCU | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Temple | 2-6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas State | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toledo | 6-2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Troy | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tulane | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tulsa | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UAB | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UCF | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UConn | 4-4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UL Monroe | 1-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UNLV | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utah State | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UTEP | 1-7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanderbilt | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Virginia | 4-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Washington | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Washington State | 1-8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West Virginia | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky | 3-5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Western Michigan | 6-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wyoming | 5-3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |