Mississippi State vs LSU CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 7 pregame analysis for Mississippi State at LSU . 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #9. LSU -10.5.
Rooting Guide
National Impact
CFP Odds
Conference Standings
Projected CFP Bracket
Back to National Impact
Path Current With win With loss CFP 5.8% 18.7% 2.6% At-large 5.4% 18.5% 3.1% Automatic bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% Conference title game 0.9% 2.9% 0.2%
LSU playoff pathsPath Current With win With loss CFP 18.1% 20.2% 4.4% At-large 15.8% 17.8% 4.4% Automatic bid 2.3% 2.4% 0.0% Conference title game 6.2% 6.6% 0.3%
Biggest non-participant CFP swings Tennessee : 2.6% outcome swing; LSU winsKentucky : 2.0% outcome swing; LSU winsAlabama : 1.3% outcome swing; Mississippi State winsIowa : 0.9% outcome swing; Mississippi State winsMissouri : 0.8% outcome swing; Mississippi State winsImpacts if Mississippi State wins Kentucky : -1.8% change; LSU winsTennessee : -1.8% change; LSU winsAlabama : 1.1% change; Mississippi State winsIowa : 0.8% change; Mississippi State winsNebraska : 0.7% change; Mississippi State winsImpacts if LSU wins Tennessee : 0.8% change; LSU winsMissouri : -0.3% change; Mississippi State winsAlabama : -0.2% change; Mississippi State winsArizona : 0.2% change; LSU winsHouston : 0.2% change; LSU winsBiggest modeled CFP impacts This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
Team Conference Current Mississippi State wins LSU wins Swing Better outcome Mississippi State SEC 5.8% 18.7% 2.6% 16.1% Mississippi State wins LSU SEC 18.1% 4.4% 20.2% 15.8% LSU wins Tennessee SEC 14.7% 12.9% 15.5% 2.6% LSU wins Kentucky SEC 13.9% 12.1% 14.1% 2.0% LSU wins Alabama SEC 77.1% 78.2% 76.9% 1.3% Mississippi State wins Iowa Big Ten 18.4% 19.2% 18.3% 0.9% Mississippi State wins Missouri SEC 16.4% 16.9% 16.1% 0.8% Mississippi State wins Nebraska Big Ten 18.5% 19.2% 18.5% 0.7% Mississippi State wins Oregon Big Ten 17.9% 18.6% 17.9% 0.7% Mississippi State wins Ohio State Big Ten 78.7% 79.3% 78.7% 0.6% Mississippi State wins Arizona Big 12 5.7% 5.4% 5.9% 0.5% LSU wins Notre Dame FBS Independents 98.4% 98.1% 98.5% 0.4% LSU wins BYU Big 12 36.5% 36.9% 36.6% 0.3% Mississippi State wins Houston Big 12 42.0% 41.9% 42.2% 0.3% LSU wins North Carolina ACC 3.1% 2.8% 3.1% 0.3% LSU wins Northwestern Big Ten 9.2% 9.6% 9.3% 0.3% Mississippi State wins USC Big Ten 18.7% 18.4% 18.7% 0.3% LSU wins Wake Forest ACC 14.7% 14.5% 14.8% 0.3% LSU wins Cincinnati Big 12 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% Mississippi State wins Indiana Big Ten 87.5% 87.7% 87.5% 0.2% Mississippi State wins