Missouri vs Ole Miss CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Missouri at Ole Miss. 2026-10-17 19:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #7. Ole Miss -6.

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Missouri playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP16.4%25.8%8.0%
At-large15.8%26.2%9.3%
Automatic bid0.6%1.3%0.4%
Conference title game3.4%5.9%1.4%

Ole Miss playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP19.2%25.3%7.1%
At-large17.9%24.4%7.5%
Automatic bid1.3%1.6%0.3%
Conference title game3.9%5.6%0.5%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Kentucky: 1.5% outcome swing; Missouri wins
  2. Tennessee: 0.7% outcome swing; Ole Miss wins
  3. Georgia: 0.6% outcome swing; Ole Miss wins
  4. Indiana: 0.6% outcome swing; Missouri wins
  5. Memphis: 0.5% outcome swing; Ole Miss wins

Impacts if Missouri wins

  1. Kentucky: 0.9% change; Missouri wins
  2. Indiana: 0.5% change; Missouri wins
  3. Iowa: 0.5% change; Missouri wins
  4. Ohio State: 0.5% change; Missouri wins
  5. BYU: 0.4% change; Ole Miss wins

Impacts if Ole Miss wins

  1. Kentucky: -0.6% change; Missouri wins
  2. Tennessee: 0.6% change; Ole Miss wins
  3. BYU: 0.5% change; Ole Miss wins
  4. Wake Forest: 0.5% change; Ole Miss wins
  5. Alabama: 0.3% change; Ole Miss wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentMissouri winsOle Miss winsSwingBetter outcome
Ole MissSEC19.2%7.1%25.3%18.2%Ole Miss wins
MissouriSEC16.4%25.8%8.0%17.8%Missouri wins
KentuckySEC13.9%14.8%13.3%1.5%Missouri wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.6%15.3%0.7%Ole Miss wins
GeorgiaSEC96.4%96.0%96.6%0.6%Ole Miss wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%88.0%87.4%0.6%Missouri wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%3.7%4.2%0.5%Ole Miss wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%75.9%76.4%0.5%Ole Miss wins
Wake ForestACC14.7%14.7%15.2%0.5%Ole Miss wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%77.0%77.4%0.4%Ole Miss wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%18.9%18.5%0.4%Missouri wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%6.0%5.7%0.3%Missouri wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%41.9%42.2%0.3%Ole Miss wins
LSUSEC18.1%18.5%18.2%0.3%Missouri wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%18.2%18.5%0.3%Ole Miss wins
Ohio StateBig Ten78.7%79.2%78.9%0.3%Missouri wins
OklahomaSEC14.5%14.6%14.3%0.3%Missouri wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%25.5%25.8%0.3%Ole Miss wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic6.8%7.0%6.7%0.3%Missouri wins
AuburnSEC0.6%0.4%0.6%0.2%Ole Miss wins