The Citadel vs Texas A&M CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for The Citadel at Texas A&M. 2026-10-17 17:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #29. Line unavailable.

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The Citadel path evidence is unavailable for this non-FBS participant.

Texas A&M playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.2%0.2%0.0%
At-large0.2%0.2%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Tennessee: 2.6% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins
  2. Kentucky: 2.0% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins
  3. Alabama: 1.9% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins
  4. Missouri: 1.8% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins
  5. LSU: 1.7% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins

Impacts if The Citadel wins

  1. Tennessee: -2.4% change; Texas A&M wins
  2. Kentucky: -1.9% change; Texas A&M wins
  3. Alabama: -1.8% change; Texas A&M wins
  4. Missouri: -1.6% change; Texas A&M wins
  5. LSU: -1.4% change; Texas A&M wins

Impacts if Texas A&M wins

  1. Houston: -0.3% change; The Citadel wins
  2. LSU: 0.3% change; Texas A&M wins
  3. UCLA: -0.3% change; The Citadel wins
  4. Iowa: -0.2% change; The Citadel wins
  5. Missouri: 0.2% change; Texas A&M wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentThe Citadel winsTexas A&M winsSwingBetter outcome
TennesseeSEC14.7%12.3%14.9%2.6%Texas A&M wins
KentuckySEC13.9%12.0%14.0%2.0%Texas A&M wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%75.3%77.2%1.9%Texas A&M wins
MissouriSEC16.4%14.8%16.6%1.8%Texas A&M wins
LSUSEC18.1%16.7%18.4%1.7%Texas A&M wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%26.9%25.5%1.4%The Citadel wins
Ohio StateBig Ten78.7%79.9%78.7%1.2%The Citadel wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%19.0%17.8%1.2%The Citadel wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%19.6%18.5%1.1%The Citadel wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%19.2%18.2%1.0%The Citadel wins
TexasSEC83.7%82.8%83.8%1.0%Texas A&M wins
USCBig Ten18.7%19.7%18.7%1.0%The Citadel wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%88.3%87.4%0.9%The Citadel wins
NorthwesternBig Ten9.2%9.9%9.0%0.9%The Citadel wins
BYUBig 1236.5%37.2%36.5%0.7%The Citadel wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%42.4%41.7%0.7%The Citadel wins
GeorgiaSEC96.4%95.8%96.4%0.6%Texas A&M wins
Wake ForestACC14.7%15.2%14.6%0.6%The Citadel wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%4.4%4.0%0.4%The Citadel wins
WisconsinBig Ten7.6%8.1%7.7%0.4%The Citadel wins