Arkansas vs Vanderbilt CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Arkansas at Vanderbilt. 2026-10-17 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #26. Vanderbilt -6.

Back to National Impact

Arkansas playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Vanderbilt playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Utah: 2.7% outcome swing; Arkansas wins
  2. Alabama: 1.3% outcome swing; Vanderbilt wins
  3. LSU: 0.9% outcome swing; Arkansas wins
  4. UCLA: 0.7% outcome swing; Vanderbilt wins
  5. BYU: 0.6% outcome swing; Arkansas wins

Impacts if Arkansas wins

  1. Utah: 1.3% change; Arkansas wins
  2. Alabama: -0.8% change; Vanderbilt wins
  3. BYU: 0.6% change; Arkansas wins
  4. LSU: 0.5% change; Arkansas wins
  5. Wake Forest: -0.5% change; Vanderbilt wins

Impacts if Vanderbilt wins

  1. Utah: -1.4% change; Arkansas wins
  2. Alabama: 0.5% change; Vanderbilt wins
  3. LSU: -0.4% change; Arkansas wins
  4. Northwestern: 0.4% change; Vanderbilt wins
  5. Oklahoma State: 0.4% change; Vanderbilt wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentArkansas winsVanderbilt winsSwingBetter outcome
UtahBig 1259.3%60.6%57.9%2.7%Arkansas wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%76.3%77.6%1.3%Vanderbilt wins
LSUSEC18.1%18.6%17.7%0.9%Arkansas wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%25.4%26.1%0.7%Vanderbilt wins
BYUBig 1236.5%37.1%36.5%0.6%Arkansas wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.7%16.2%0.5%Arkansas wins
Wake ForestACC14.7%14.2%14.7%0.5%Vanderbilt wins
NorthwesternBig Ten9.2%9.2%9.6%0.4%Vanderbilt wins
Oklahoma StateBig 124.3%4.3%4.7%0.4%Vanderbilt wins
GeorgiaSEC96.4%96.3%96.6%0.3%Vanderbilt wins
OklahomaSEC14.5%14.5%14.2%0.3%Arkansas wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%76.2%75.9%0.3%Arkansas wins
USCBig Ten18.7%18.8%19.1%0.3%Vanderbilt wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.9%5.7%0.2%Arkansas wins
AuburnSEC0.6%0.4%0.6%0.2%Vanderbilt wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%42.0%42.2%0.2%Vanderbilt wins
KentuckySEC13.9%13.6%13.8%0.2%Vanderbilt wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%18.4%18.6%0.2%Vanderbilt wins
Ole MissSEC19.2%19.0%19.2%0.2%Vanderbilt wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.7%14.5%0.2%Arkansas wins