Missouri vs Arkansas CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Missouri at Arkansas. 2026-10-31 23:45 UTC. National Impact rank: #14. Missouri -10.5.

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Missouri playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP4.7%5.9%0.6%
At-large4.7%5.9%0.7%
Automatic bid0.0%0.1%0.0%
Conference title game1.7%2.3%0.1%

Arkansas playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Utah: 3.8% outcome swing; Arkansas wins
  2. Tennessee: 3.0% outcome swing; Arkansas wins
  3. LSU: 2.7% outcome swing; Arkansas wins
  4. Ole Miss: 2.1% outcome swing; Missouri wins
  5. Florida: 1.8% outcome swing; Missouri wins

Impacts if Missouri wins

  1. Tennessee: -1.0% change; Arkansas wins
  2. LSU: -0.8% change; Arkansas wins
  3. Utah: -0.7% change; Arkansas wins
  4. Ole Miss: 0.6% change; Missouri wins
  5. Florida: 0.5% change; Missouri wins

Impacts if Arkansas wins

  1. Utah: 3.1% change; Arkansas wins
  2. Tennessee: 2.0% change; Arkansas wins
  3. LSU: 1.9% change; Arkansas wins
  4. Ole Miss: -1.5% change; Missouri wins
  5. Florida: -1.3% change; Missouri wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentMissouri winsArkansas winsSwingBetter outcome
MissouriSEC4.7%5.9%0.6%5.3%Missouri wins
UtahBig 1271.7%71.0%74.8%3.8%Arkansas wins
TennesseeSEC11.7%10.7%13.7%3.0%Arkansas wins
LSUSEC44.9%44.1%46.8%2.7%Arkansas wins
Ole MissSEC37.5%38.1%36.0%2.1%Missouri wins
FloridaSEC18.7%19.2%17.4%1.8%Missouri wins
KentuckySEC37.8%38.0%36.7%1.3%Missouri wins
BYUBig 1262.1%62.0%62.7%0.7%Arkansas wins
HoustonBig 1237.7%37.5%38.1%0.6%Arkansas wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic20.1%20.1%20.6%0.5%Arkansas wins
AlabamaSEC49.9%50.0%49.6%0.4%Missouri wins
New MexicoMountain West3.2%3.2%2.8%0.4%Missouri wins
USCBig Ten6.2%6.2%6.6%0.4%Arkansas wins
AuburnSEC1.1%1.1%1.4%0.3%Arkansas wins
James MadisonSun Belt1.3%1.3%1.0%0.3%Missouri wins
Texas TechBig 1250.9%50.9%51.2%0.3%Arkansas wins
IndianaBig Ten91.9%91.9%92.1%0.2%Arkansas wins
IowaBig Ten2.7%2.7%2.5%0.2%Missouri wins
LouisvilleACC2.6%2.6%2.8%0.2%Arkansas wins
Mississippi StateSEC0.3%0.3%0.1%0.2%Missouri wins