Florida vs Georgia CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Florida at Georgia. 2026-10-31 19:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #6. Georgia -10.5.

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Florida playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP18.7%43.0%13.9%
At-large16.9%36.3%14.8%
Automatic bid1.8%8.3%0.7%
Conference title game7.3%33.5%2.9%

Georgia playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP82.0%87.3%49.8%
At-large29.7%31.5%12.9%
Automatic bid52.3%54.6%35.7%
Conference title game78.2%83.2%48.4%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Kentucky: 2.2% outcome swing; Florida wins
  2. LSU: 1.7% outcome swing; Florida wins
  3. Houston: 1.4% outcome swing; Florida wins
  4. Alabama: 1.0% outcome swing; Georgia wins
  5. BYU: 0.9% outcome swing; Florida wins

Impacts if Florida wins

  1. Kentucky: 2.0% change; Florida wins
  2. LSU: 1.3% change; Florida wins
  3. BYU: 1.2% change; Florida wins
  4. Houston: 1.1% change; Florida wins
  5. Alabama: -0.8% change; Georgia wins

Impacts if Georgia wins

  1. LSU: -0.4% change; Florida wins
  2. Tennessee: 0.4% change; Georgia wins
  3. BYU: 0.3% change; Florida wins
  4. Houston: -0.3% change; Florida wins
  5. Northwestern: 0.3% change; Georgia wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentFlorida winsGeorgia winsSwingBetter outcome
GeorgiaSEC82.0%49.8%87.3%37.5%Georgia wins
FloridaSEC18.7%43.0%13.9%29.1%Florida wins
KentuckySEC37.8%39.8%37.6%2.2%Florida wins
LSUSEC44.9%46.2%44.5%1.7%Florida wins
HoustonBig 1237.7%38.8%37.4%1.4%Florida wins
AlabamaSEC49.9%49.1%50.1%1.0%Georgia wins
BYUBig 1262.1%63.3%62.4%0.9%Florida wins
UCLABig Ten44.3%44.8%44.0%0.8%Florida wins
TexasSEC62.7%63.4%62.7%0.7%Florida wins
Texas TechBig 1250.9%51.4%50.7%0.7%Florida wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic20.1%20.6%19.9%0.7%Florida wins
Wake ForestACC14.2%14.9%14.2%0.7%Florida wins
MissouriSEC4.7%5.1%4.7%0.4%Florida wins
NebraskaBig Ten5.6%6.2%5.8%0.4%Florida wins
USCBig Ten6.2%6.6%6.2%0.4%Florida wins
WisconsinBig Ten1.5%1.8%1.4%0.4%Florida wins
NorthwesternBig Ten13.5%13.5%13.8%0.3%Georgia wins
Notre DameFBS Independents95.3%95.0%95.3%0.3%Georgia wins
CincinnatiBig 124.8%4.7%4.9%0.2%Georgia wins
DukeACC0.3%0.4%0.2%0.2%Florida wins