Auburn vs Ole Miss CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Auburn at Ole Miss. 2026-10-31 16:45 UTC. National Impact rank: #5. Ole Miss -11.5.

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Auburn playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP1.1%3.8%0.0%
At-large1.0%4.0%0.3%
Automatic bid0.1%0.1%0.0%
Conference title game0.1%0.1%0.0%

Ole Miss playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP37.5%44.5%13.7%
At-large30.8%35.3%12.0%
Automatic bid6.7%8.1%0.6%
Conference title game16.0%19.4%1.7%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. LSU: 4.1% outcome swing; Auburn wins
  2. Alabama: 3.8% outcome swing; Auburn wins
  3. Tennessee: 3.5% outcome swing; Auburn wins
  4. BYU: 3.1% outcome swing; Auburn wins
  5. Utah: 2.3% outcome swing; Auburn wins

Impacts if Auburn wins

  1. LSU: 3.2% change; Auburn wins
  2. Alabama: 3.0% change; Auburn wins
  3. Tennessee: 2.5% change; Auburn wins
  4. BYU: 2.3% change; Auburn wins
  5. UCLA: 1.4% change; Auburn wins

Impacts if Ole Miss wins

  1. Tennessee: -1.0% change; Auburn wins
  2. LSU: -0.9% change; Auburn wins
  3. Utah: -0.9% change; Auburn wins
  4. Alabama: -0.8% change; Auburn wins
  5. BYU: -0.8% change; Auburn wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentAuburn winsOle Miss winsSwingBetter outcome
Ole MissSEC37.5%13.7%44.5%30.8%Ole Miss wins
LSUSEC44.9%48.1%44.0%4.1%Auburn wins
AlabamaSEC49.9%52.9%49.1%3.8%Auburn wins
AuburnSEC1.1%3.8%0.0%3.8%Auburn wins
TennesseeSEC11.7%14.2%10.7%3.5%Auburn wins
BYUBig 1262.1%64.4%61.3%3.1%Auburn wins
UtahBig 1271.7%73.1%70.8%2.3%Auburn wins
UCLABig Ten44.3%45.7%44.0%1.7%Auburn wins
HoustonBig 1237.7%39.0%37.4%1.6%Auburn wins
Texas TechBig 1250.9%51.7%50.2%1.5%Auburn wins
KentuckySEC37.8%38.7%37.7%1.0%Auburn wins
USCBig Ten6.2%7.1%6.2%0.9%Auburn wins
ArizonaBig 1224.0%24.3%23.7%0.6%Auburn wins
TexasSEC62.7%62.1%62.7%0.6%Ole Miss wins
Wake ForestACC14.2%14.5%13.9%0.6%Auburn wins
GeorgiaSEC82.0%81.9%82.4%0.5%Ole Miss wins
NebraskaBig Ten5.6%6.2%5.7%0.5%Auburn wins
NorthwesternBig Ten13.5%13.9%13.4%0.5%Auburn wins
Oklahoma StateBig 126.3%6.9%6.4%0.5%Auburn wins
IndianaBig Ten91.9%92.4%92.0%0.4%Auburn wins