South Carolina vs Oklahoma CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for South Carolina at Oklahoma. 2026-10-31 20:15 UTC. National Impact rank: #13. Oklahoma -5.5.
South Carolina playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Automatic bid | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Oklahoma playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 4.2% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 3.2% | 4.8% | 0.2% |
| Automatic bid | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 2.6% | 3.6% | 0.1% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Alabama: 3.7% outcome swing; South Carolina wins
- New Mexico: 1.8% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- Ole Miss: 1.6% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- Tennessee: 1.5% outcome swing; South Carolina wins
- Boise State: 0.8% outcome swing; South Carolina wins
Impacts if South Carolina wins
- Alabama: 2.7% change; South Carolina wins
- New Mexico: -1.2% change; Oklahoma wins
- Ole Miss: -1.1% change; Oklahoma wins
- Tennessee: 0.9% change; South Carolina wins
- Boise State: 0.8% change; South Carolina wins
Impacts if Oklahoma wins
- Alabama: -1.0% change; South Carolina wins
- New Mexico: 0.6% change; Oklahoma wins
- Tennessee: -0.6% change; South Carolina wins
- UCLA: 0.6% change; Oklahoma wins
- Ole Miss: 0.5% change; Oklahoma wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | South Carolina wins | Oklahoma wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | SEC | 4.2% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | Oklahoma wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 52.6% | 48.9% | 3.7% | South Carolina wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | Oklahoma wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 36.4% | 38.0% | 1.6% | Oklahoma wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 1.5% | South Carolina wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 1.4% | South Carolina wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 64.6% | 63.8% | 0.8% | South Carolina wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.6% | 44.8% | 0.8% | South Carolina wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 38.0% | 37.4% | 0.6% | South Carolina wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.3% | 37.8% | 0.5% | Oklahoma wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.7% | 62.4% | 62.9% | 0.5% | Oklahoma wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 44.4% | 44.9% | 0.5% | Oklahoma wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 72.3% | 71.8% | 0.5% | South Carolina wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.4% | Oklahoma wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.3% | 0.3% | Oklahoma wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 95.3% | 95.3% | 95.0% | 0.3% | South Carolina wins |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 0.3% | South Carolina wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.8% | 50.5% | 0.3% | South Carolina wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.2% | 19.9% | 0.3% | South Carolina wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% | South Carolina wins |