Mississippi State vs Texas CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Mississippi State at Texas. 2026-10-31 23:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #7. Texas -20.5.

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Mississippi State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.3%2.2%0.0%
At-large0.3%2.4%0.2%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.2%0.0%

Texas playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP62.7%68.0%22.7%
At-large53.2%55.4%18.5%
Automatic bid9.5%9.8%1.4%
Conference title game17.6%18.4%3.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Alabama: 9.9% outcome swing; Mississippi State wins
  2. Kentucky: 3.5% outcome swing; Mississippi State wins
  3. BYU: 3.1% outcome swing; Mississippi State wins
  4. UTSA: 3.0% outcome swing; Texas wins
  5. Georgia: 2.7% outcome swing; Mississippi State wins

Impacts if Mississippi State wins

  1. Alabama: 8.8% change; Mississippi State wins
  2. Kentucky: 3.0% change; Mississippi State wins
  3. UTSA: -2.8% change; Texas wins
  4. BYU: 2.6% change; Mississippi State wins
  5. Georgia: 2.3% change; Mississippi State wins

Impacts if Texas wins

  1. Alabama: -1.1% change; Mississippi State wins
  2. BYU: -0.5% change; Mississippi State wins
  3. Kentucky: -0.5% change; Mississippi State wins
  4. Georgia: -0.4% change; Mississippi State wins
  5. UCLA: -0.4% change; Mississippi State wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentMississippi State winsTexas winsSwingBetter outcome
TexasSEC62.7%22.7%68.0%45.3%Texas wins
AlabamaSEC49.9%58.7%48.8%9.9%Mississippi State wins
KentuckySEC37.8%40.8%37.3%3.5%Mississippi State wins
BYUBig 1262.1%64.7%61.6%3.1%Mississippi State wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic20.1%17.3%20.3%3.0%Texas wins
GeorgiaSEC82.0%84.3%81.6%2.7%Mississippi State wins
UCLABig Ten44.3%46.4%43.9%2.5%Mississippi State wins
ArizonaBig 1224.0%26.2%23.8%2.4%Mississippi State wins
HoustonBig 1237.7%39.8%37.6%2.2%Mississippi State wins
Mississippi StateSEC0.3%2.2%0.0%2.2%Mississippi State wins
Wake ForestACC14.2%16.0%13.9%2.1%Mississippi State wins
UtahBig 1271.7%73.7%71.7%2.0%Mississippi State wins
Texas TechBig 1250.9%52.6%50.9%1.7%Mississippi State wins
Ole MissSEC37.5%38.8%37.2%1.6%Mississippi State wins
Boise StatePac-1263.8%65.3%63.8%1.5%Mississippi State wins
USCBig Ten6.2%7.4%6.1%1.3%Mississippi State wins
IndianaBig Ten91.9%93.0%91.9%1.1%Mississippi State wins
LSUSEC44.9%46.3%45.2%1.1%Mississippi State wins
FloridaSEC18.7%17.8%18.8%1.0%Texas wins
NorthwesternBig Ten13.5%14.1%13.2%0.9%Mississippi State wins