Oklahoma vs Florida CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Oklahoma at Florida. 2026-11-08 00:45 UTC. National Impact rank: #18. Florida -5.5.
Oklahoma playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
Florida playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 4.5% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 4.1% | 6.0% | 0.3% |
| Automatic bid | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 1.2% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- Ohio State: 1.2% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- Texas Tech: 0.8% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- LSU: 0.7% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- Tennessee: 0.6% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
Impacts if Oklahoma wins
- New Mexico: 0.8% change; Oklahoma wins
- Ohio State: 0.8% change; Oklahoma wins
- Tennessee: 0.7% change; Oklahoma wins
- Texas Tech: 0.7% change; Oklahoma wins
- LSU: 0.6% change; Oklahoma wins
Impacts if Florida wins
- New Mexico: -0.4% change; Oklahoma wins
- Ohio State: -0.4% change; Oklahoma wins
- UCLA: -0.4% change; Oklahoma wins
- Alabama: -0.2% change; Oklahoma wins
- Georgia: 0.2% change; Either outcome
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Oklahoma wins | Florida wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | Florida wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 18.9% | 17.7% | 1.2% | Oklahoma wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 70.6% | 69.4% | 1.2% | Oklahoma wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 45.5% | 44.7% | 0.8% | Oklahoma wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.7% | 49.0% | 0.7% | Oklahoma wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.9% | 26.3% | 0.6% | Oklahoma wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.6% | 62.0% | 0.6% | Oklahoma wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.4% | 56.9% | 0.5% | Florida wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 0.5% | Florida wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 0.5% | Florida wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.6% | 45.1% | 0.5% | Oklahoma wins |
| Oklahoma | SEC | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | Oklahoma wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 0.4% | Oklahoma wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 37.3% | 37.0% | 0.3% | Oklahoma wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.8% | 87.5% | 0.3% | Oklahoma wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.5% | 76.3% | 0.2% | Oklahoma wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.7% | 51.5% | 0.2% | Oklahoma wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.9% | 88.7% | 0.2% | Oklahoma wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 0.2% | Oklahoma wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.5% | 50.3% | 0.2% | Oklahoma wins |