Alabama vs LSU CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Alabama at LSU. 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #2. LSU -4.5.
Alabama playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 76.5% | 95.6% | 63.9% |
| At-large | 60.7% | 60.1% | 61.1% |
| Automatic bid | 15.8% | 33.6% | 0.9% |
| Conference title game | 26.8% | 61.2% | 2.0% |
LSU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 49.1% | 66.3% | 24.6% |
| At-large | 36.2% | 44.9% | 23.0% |
| Automatic bid | 12.9% | 19.9% | 0.1% |
| Conference title game | 22.9% | 36.4% | 0.7% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Tennessee: 5.5% outcome swing; Alabama wins
- Ole Miss: 2.6% outcome swing; LSU wins
- Georgia: 1.9% outcome swing; Alabama wins
- Notre Dame: 1.4% outcome swing; Alabama wins
- Texas: 1.1% outcome swing; LSU wins
Impacts if Alabama wins
- Tennessee: 3.3% change; Alabama wins
- Ole Miss: -1.7% change; LSU wins
- Georgia: 1.2% change; Alabama wins
- Texas: -0.8% change; LSU wins
- Wake Forest: 0.8% change; Alabama wins
Impacts if LSU wins
- Tennessee: -2.2% change; Alabama wins
- Notre Dame: -1.0% change; Alabama wins
- Ole Miss: 0.9% change; LSU wins
- Georgia: -0.7% change; Alabama wins
- South Carolina: -0.7% change; Alabama wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Alabama wins | LSU wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 24.6% | 66.3% | 41.7% | LSU wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 95.6% | 63.9% | 31.7% | Alabama wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 29.5% | 24.0% | 5.5% | Alabama wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 48.7% | 51.3% | 2.6% | LSU wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 86.1% | 84.2% | 1.9% | Alabama wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 88.1% | 86.7% | 1.4% | Alabama wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 61.4% | 62.5% | 1.1% | LSU wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 52.0% | 51.0% | 1.0% | Alabama wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 70.4% | 69.5% | 0.9% | Alabama wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 46.1% | 45.3% | 0.8% | Alabama wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 0.7% | Alabama wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 83.8% | 83.1% | 0.7% | Alabama wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 25.8% | 26.4% | 0.6% | LSU wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 0.6% | Alabama wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 89.2% | 88.7% | 0.5% | Alabama wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 0.5% | Alabama wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 0.4% | LSU wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 0.4% | Alabama wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.8% | 45.1% | 0.3% | LSU wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 0.2% | Alabama wins |