Texas vs Missouri CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Texas at Missouri. 2026-11-07 17:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #3. Texas -3.5.
Texas playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 62.2% | 77.7% | 25.7% |
| At-large | 55.1% | 65.6% | 22.3% |
| Automatic bid | 7.1% | 9.0% | 0.3% |
| Conference title game | 14.5% | 18.2% | 0.5% |
Missouri playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 7.0% | 19.3% | 1.4% |
| At-large | 6.1% | 17.6% | 2.4% |
| Automatic bid | 0.9% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Conference title game | 2.9% | 10.7% | 0.4% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ole Miss: 5.7% outcome swing; Missouri wins
- Alabama: 3.4% outcome swing; Missouri wins
- Wake Forest: 3.2% outcome swing; Missouri wins
- BYU: 2.6% outcome swing; Missouri wins
- UCLA: 2.3% outcome swing; Missouri wins
Impacts if Texas wins
- Ole Miss: -2.4% change; Missouri wins
- BYU: -1.3% change; Missouri wins
- Wake Forest: -1.0% change; Missouri wins
- Alabama: -0.9% change; Missouri wins
- Utah: -0.9% change; Missouri wins
Impacts if Missouri wins
- Ole Miss: 3.3% change; Missouri wins
- Alabama: 2.5% change; Missouri wins
- Wake Forest: 2.2% change; Missouri wins
- UCLA: 1.8% change; Missouri wins
- Arizona: 1.5% change; Missouri wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Texas wins | Missouri wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 77.7% | 25.7% | 52.0% | Texas wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 1.4% | 19.3% | 17.9% | Missouri wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 48.0% | 53.7% | 5.7% | Missouri wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 75.6% | 79.0% | 3.4% | Missouri wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 44.3% | 47.5% | 3.2% | Missouri wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 50.1% | 52.7% | 2.6% | Missouri wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.0% | 47.3% | 2.3% | Missouri wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 1.9% | Missouri wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.2% | 89.1% | 1.9% | Missouri wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 25.9% | 27.7% | 1.8% | Missouri wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 82.5% | 83.9% | 1.4% | Missouri wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 36.9% | 38.2% | 1.3% | Missouri wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.6% | 45.9% | 1.3% | Missouri wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 84.6% | 85.8% | 1.2% | Missouri wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 26.3% | 27.5% | 1.2% | Missouri wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.3% | 19.1% | 1.2% | Texas wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 1.1% | Missouri wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.8% | 89.8% | 1.0% | Missouri wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 17.9% | 18.9% | 1.0% | Missouri wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.5% | 57.4% | 0.9% | Missouri wins |