Kentucky vs Tennessee CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Kentucky at Tennessee. 2026-11-07 23:15 UTC. National Impact rank: #5. Tennessee -5.5.
Kentucky playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 26.3% | 49.3% | 17.5% |
| At-large | 21.3% | 39.8% | 14.1% |
| Automatic bid | 5.0% | 9.6% | 3.5% |
| Conference title game | 24.4% | 49.1% | 14.1% |
Tennessee playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 26.2% | 32.7% | 5.4% |
| At-large | 23.2% | 29.8% | 6.2% |
| Automatic bid | 3.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 8.8% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- LSU: 3.5% outcome swing; Tennessee wins
- Alabama: 2.3% outcome swing; Kentucky wins
- Texas: 1.8% outcome swing; Tennessee wins
- Missouri: 1.7% outcome swing; Kentucky wins
- South Carolina: 0.9% outcome swing; Tennessee wins
Impacts if Kentucky wins
- LSU: -2.3% change; Tennessee wins
- Alabama: 1.8% change; Kentucky wins
- Texas: -1.3% change; Tennessee wins
- Missouri: 1.0% change; Kentucky wins
- South Carolina: -0.8% change; Tennessee wins
Impacts if Tennessee wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Kentucky wins | Tennessee wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 49.3% | 17.5% | 31.8% | Kentucky wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 5.4% | 32.7% | 27.3% | Tennessee wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 46.8% | 50.3% | 3.5% | Tennessee wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 78.3% | 76.0% | 2.3% | Kentucky wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 60.9% | 62.7% | 1.8% | Tennessee wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 1.7% | Kentucky wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 0.9% | Tennessee wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 0.7% | Kentucky wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.3% | 88.0% | 0.7% | Tennessee wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 85.5% | 84.9% | 0.6% | Kentucky wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 36.8% | 37.4% | 0.6% | Tennessee wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 0.6% | Tennessee wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.0% | 45.6% | 0.6% | Tennessee wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 0.5% | Tennessee wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 0.4% | Kentucky wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.2% | 50.6% | 0.4% | Tennessee wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 0.4% | Tennessee wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 45.3% | 44.9% | 0.4% | Kentucky wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 0.4% | Tennessee wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 69.6% | 69.9% | 0.3% | Tennessee wins |