Kansas vs Kansas State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Kansas at Kansas State. 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #23. Kansas State -6.5.

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Kansas playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.1%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.1%0.0%
Conference title game0.3%0.4%0.1%

Kansas State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.2%0.2%0.0%
Automatic bid0.2%0.2%0.0%
Conference title game0.3%0.3%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Houston: 2.4% outcome swing; Kansas State wins
  2. BYU: 1.5% outcome swing; Kansas wins
  3. Utah: 1.5% outcome swing; Kansas wins
  4. Missouri: 1.0% outcome swing; Kansas wins
  5. Boise State: 0.9% outcome swing; Kansas State wins

Impacts if Kansas wins

  1. Houston: -1.4% change; Kansas State wins
  2. BYU: 1.1% change; Kansas wins
  3. Utah: 0.9% change; Kansas wins
  4. Texas Tech: -0.7% change; Kansas State wins
  5. Arizona: -0.6% change; Kansas State wins

Impacts if Kansas State wins

  1. Houston: 1.0% change; Kansas State wins
  2. Missouri: -0.8% change; Kansas wins
  3. Utah: -0.6% change; Kansas wins
  4. BYU: -0.4% change; Kansas wins
  5. Oregon: -0.4% change; Kansas wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentKansas winsKansas State winsSwingBetter outcome
HoustonBig 1242.0%40.6%43.0%2.4%Kansas State wins
BYUBig 1236.5%37.6%36.1%1.5%Kansas wins
UtahBig 1259.3%60.2%58.7%1.5%Kansas wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.6%15.6%1.0%Kansas wins
Boise StatePac-1269.5%68.9%69.8%0.9%Kansas State wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%75.5%76.4%0.9%Kansas State wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%5.1%5.9%0.8%Kansas State wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%15.2%14.6%0.6%Kansas wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%10.4%9.9%0.5%Kansas wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.1%87.5%0.4%Kansas State wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%17.9%17.5%0.4%Kansas wins
KentuckySEC13.9%14.2%13.9%0.3%Kansas wins
NorthwesternBig Ten9.2%9.1%9.4%0.3%Kansas State wins
Oklahoma StateBig 124.3%4.2%4.5%0.3%Kansas State wins
TexasSEC83.7%84.0%83.7%0.3%Kansas wins
WisconsinBig Ten7.6%7.8%7.5%0.3%Kansas wins
BaylorBig 126.4%6.6%6.4%0.2%Kansas wins
Kansas StateBig 120.2%0.0%0.2%0.2%Kansas State wins
LSUSEC18.1%18.3%18.1%0.2%Kansas wins
MemphisAmerican Athletic3.9%4.1%3.9%0.2%Kansas wins