TCU vs Baylor CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 7 pregame analysis for TCU at Baylor . 2026-10-17 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #18. Baylor -6.5.
Rooting Guide
National Impact
CFP Odds
Conference Standings
Projected CFP Bracket
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TCU playoff pathsPath Current With win With loss CFP 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Automatic bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Conference title game 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Baylor playoff pathsPath Current With win With loss CFP 6.4% 7.6% 2.4% At-large 3.8% 4.7% 1.3% Automatic bid 2.6% 2.9% 1.1% Conference title game 10.1% 11.6% 4.7%
Biggest non-participant CFP swings Utah : 2.5% outcome swing; TCU winsArizona : 1.7% outcome swing; TCU winsHouston : 1.2% outcome swing; Baylor winsUSC : 0.7% outcome swing; TCU winsOregon : 0.6% outcome swing; TCU winsImpacts if TCU wins Utah : 2.0% change; TCU winsArizona : 1.3% change; TCU winsHouston : -0.9% change; Baylor winsUSC : 0.7% change; TCU winsOregon : 0.5% change; TCU winsImpacts if Baylor wins Utah : -0.5% change; TCU winsArizona : -0.4% change; TCU winsHouston : 0.3% change; Baylor winsKentucky : 0.2% change; Either outcomeMissouri : -0.2% change; TCU winsBiggest modeled CFP impacts This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
Team Conference Current TCU wins Baylor wins Swing Better outcome Baylor Big 12 6.4% 2.4% 7.6% 5.2% Baylor wins Utah Big 12 59.3% 61.3% 58.8% 2.5% TCU wins Arizona Big 12 5.7% 7.0% 5.3% 1.7% TCU wins Houston Big 12 42.0% 41.1% 42.3% 1.2% Baylor wins USC Big Ten 18.7% 19.4% 18.7% 0.7% TCU wins Oregon Big Ten 17.9% 18.4% 17.8% 0.6% TCU wins Missouri SEC 16.4% 16.6% 16.2% 0.4% TCU wins Texas Tech Big 12 76.2% 75.8% 76.2% 0.4% Baylor wins Wake Forest ACC 14.7% 15.0% 14.6% 0.4% TCU wins Georgia SEC 96.4% 96.1% 96.4% 0.3% Baylor wins Cincinnati Big 12 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% Baylor wins LSU SEC 18.1% 18.3% 18.1% 0.2% TCU wins Memphis American Athletic 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 0.2% TCU wins TCU Big 12 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% TCU wins UCLA Big Ten 25.8% 25.9% 25.7% 0.2% TCU wins Alabama SEC 77.1% 77.0% 77.1% 0.1% Baylor wins Boise State Pac-12 69.5% 69.6% 69.5% 0.1% TCU wins BYU Big 12 36.5% 36.5% 36.6% 0.1% Baylor wins Clemson ACC 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% Baylor wins Fresno State Pac-12 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Baylor wins