Arizona vs Texas Tech CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Arizona at Texas Tech. 2026-10-31 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #1. Texas Tech -4.5.

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Arizona playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP24.0%44.4%11.4%
At-large15.2%27.5%10.2%
Automatic bid8.8%18.1%2.4%
Conference title game20.6%43.3%6.5%

Texas Tech playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP50.9%60.8%23.0%
At-large28.1%32.5%17.3%
Automatic bid22.8%28.4%5.8%
Conference title game42.4%55.4%9.7%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Houston: 6.2% outcome swing; Texas Tech wins
  2. BYU: 5.5% outcome swing; Arizona wins
  3. Utah: 4.3% outcome swing; Arizona wins
  4. LSU: 1.4% outcome swing; Arizona wins
  5. Oklahoma State: 1.0% outcome swing; Texas Tech wins

Impacts if Arizona wins

  1. Houston: -4.6% change; Texas Tech wins
  2. BYU: 3.5% change; Arizona wins
  3. Utah: 3.4% change; Arizona wins
  4. LSU: 1.5% change; Arizona wins
  5. UCLA: 1.1% change; Arizona wins

Impacts if Texas Tech wins

  1. BYU: -2.0% change; Arizona wins
  2. Houston: 1.6% change; Texas Tech wins
  3. Utah: -0.9% change; Arizona wins
  4. Kentucky: 0.8% change; Texas Tech wins
  5. UCLA: 0.8% change; Arizona wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentArizona winsTexas Tech winsSwingBetter outcome
Texas TechBig 1250.9%23.0%60.8%37.8%Texas Tech wins
ArizonaBig 1224.0%44.4%11.4%33.0%Arizona wins
HoustonBig 1237.7%33.1%39.3%6.2%Texas Tech wins
BYUBig 1262.1%65.6%60.1%5.5%Arizona wins
UtahBig 1271.7%75.1%70.8%4.3%Arizona wins
LSUSEC44.9%46.4%45.0%1.4%Arizona wins
Oklahoma StateBig 126.3%5.8%6.8%1.0%Texas Tech wins
CincinnatiBig 124.8%3.9%4.7%0.8%Texas Tech wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic20.1%20.7%20.0%0.7%Arizona wins
KentuckySEC37.8%38.0%38.6%0.6%Texas Tech wins
AlabamaSEC49.9%50.6%50.1%0.5%Arizona wins
GeorgiaSEC82.0%82.5%82.0%0.5%Arizona wins
Notre DameFBS Independents95.3%95.2%95.7%0.5%Texas Tech wins
WisconsinBig Ten1.5%2.0%1.5%0.5%Arizona wins
NebraskaBig Ten5.6%6.0%5.6%0.4%Arizona wins
NorthwesternBig Ten13.5%13.8%13.4%0.4%Arizona wins
Ole MissSEC37.5%37.4%37.8%0.4%Texas Tech wins
Oregon StatePac-124.3%4.0%4.3%0.3%Texas Tech wins
SMUACC8.1%8.2%7.9%0.3%Arizona wins
TennesseeSEC11.7%11.8%12.1%0.3%Texas Tech wins