Arizona State vs BYU CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Arizona State at BYU. 2026-10-31 19:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #9. BYU -14.5.
Arizona State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
BYU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 62.1% | 64.5% | 27.7% |
| At-large | 40.6% | 42.0% | 18.6% |
| Automatic bid | 21.5% | 22.0% | 8.6% |
| Conference title game | 41.0% | 42.1% | 15.8% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- LSU: 4.7% outcome swing; Arizona State wins
- Texas Tech: 4.5% outcome swing; Arizona State wins
- Alabama: 4.2% outcome swing; Arizona State wins
- Houston: 2.7% outcome swing; Arizona State wins
- Georgia: 2.4% outcome swing; Arizona State wins
Impacts if Arizona State wins
- LSU: 4.6% change; Arizona State wins
- Texas Tech: 4.5% change; Arizona State wins
- Alabama: 3.6% change; Arizona State wins
- Houston: 2.5% change; Arizona State wins
- Kentucky: 2.5% change; Arizona State wins
Impacts if BYU wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Arizona State wins | BYU wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 27.7% | 64.5% | 36.8% | BYU wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 49.5% | 44.8% | 4.7% | Arizona State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 55.4% | 50.9% | 4.5% | Arizona State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 53.5% | 49.3% | 4.2% | Arizona State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 40.2% | 37.5% | 2.7% | Arizona State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 84.2% | 81.8% | 2.4% | Arizona State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 2.4% | Arizona State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 2.3% | Arizona State wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 2.0% | Arizona State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 46.1% | 44.1% | 2.0% | Arizona State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 39.2% | 37.4% | 1.8% | Arizona State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 70.2% | 71.9% | 1.7% | BYU wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 92.8% | 91.7% | 1.1% | Arizona State wins |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 1.0% | Arizona State wins |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 13.5% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 1.0% | Arizona State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 93.2% | 92.2% | 1.0% | Arizona State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 0.9% | Arizona State wins |
| Florida | SEC | 18.7% | 19.2% | 18.5% | 0.7% | Arizona State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 14.2% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 0.6% | Arizona State wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 0.4% | Arizona State wins |