Baylor vs UCF CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Baylor at UCF. 2026-10-30 23:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #25. UCF -2.5.
Baylor playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
UCF playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.8% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Texas Tech: 2.8% outcome swing; Baylor wins
- LSU: 0.8% outcome swing; Baylor wins
- Oklahoma State: 0.8% outcome swing; UCF wins
- BYU: 0.7% outcome swing; UCF wins
- Army: 0.5% outcome swing; Baylor wins
Impacts if Baylor wins
- Texas Tech: 1.7% change; Baylor wins
- LSU: 0.7% change; Baylor wins
- Arizona: 0.4% change; Baylor wins
- Alabama: -0.3% change; Either outcome
- BYU: -0.3% change; UCF wins
Impacts if UCF wins
- Texas Tech: -1.1% change; Baylor wins
- Oklahoma State: 0.7% change; UCF wins
- BYU: 0.4% change; UCF wins
- USC: 0.4% change; UCF wins
- Utah: 0.4% change; UCF wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Baylor wins | UCF wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 52.6% | 49.8% | 2.8% | Baylor wins |
| UCF | Big 12 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | UCF wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.6% | 44.8% | 0.8% | Baylor wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 0.8% | UCF wins |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.7% | Baylor wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 61.8% | 62.5% | 0.7% | UCF wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | Baylor wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 71.6% | 72.1% | 0.5% | UCF wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 24.4% | 24.0% | 0.4% | Baylor wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 0.4% | UCF wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 19.9% | 20.3% | 0.4% | UCF wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 14.2% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 0.3% | UCF wins |
| Auburn | SEC | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | Baylor wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 37.5% | 37.7% | 0.2% | UCF wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% | Baylor wins |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 0.2% | UCF wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 95.3% | 95.1% | 95.3% | 0.2% | UCF wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 92.1% | 92.3% | 0.2% | UCF wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 37.6% | 37.4% | 0.2% | Baylor wins |
| SMU | ACC | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 0.2% | UCF wins |