Oklahoma State vs Iowa State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Oklahoma State at Iowa State. 2026-10-31 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #10. Line unavailable.
Oklahoma State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 6.3% | 7.5% | 2.0% |
| Automatic bid | 5.7% | 6.8% | 1.9% |
| Conference title game | 17.3% | 20.5% | 5.5% |
Iowa State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- BYU: 4.4% outcome swing; Iowa State wins
- Houston: 4.2% outcome swing; Oklahoma State wins
- Utah: 3.9% outcome swing; Iowa State wins
- Texas Tech: 3.4% outcome swing; Oklahoma State wins
- Arizona: 2.0% outcome swing; Iowa State wins
Impacts if Oklahoma State wins
- Utah: -2.0% change; Iowa State wins
- BYU: -1.5% change; Iowa State wins
- Houston: 1.3% change; Oklahoma State wins
- Texas Tech: 1.1% change; Oklahoma State wins
- Arizona: -0.8% change; Iowa State wins
Impacts if Iowa State wins
- BYU: 2.9% change; Iowa State wins
- Houston: -2.9% change; Oklahoma State wins
- Texas Tech: -2.3% change; Oklahoma State wins
- Utah: 1.9% change; Iowa State wins
- Arizona: 1.2% change; Iowa State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Oklahoma State wins | Iowa State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 6.3% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 5.5% | Oklahoma State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 60.6% | 65.0% | 4.4% | Iowa State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 39.0% | 34.8% | 4.2% | Oklahoma State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 69.7% | 73.6% | 3.9% | Iowa State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 52.0% | 48.6% | 3.4% | Oklahoma State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 23.2% | 25.2% | 2.0% | Iowa State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.7% | 38.4% | 0.7% | Iowa State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 81.8% | 82.4% | 0.6% | Iowa State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.0% | 45.6% | 0.6% | Iowa State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.5% | Iowa State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 0.5% | Oklahoma State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.8% | 49.5% | 0.3% | Oklahoma State wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% | Oklahoma State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 63.9% | 64.2% | 0.3% | Iowa State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 92.4% | 92.7% | 0.3% | Iowa State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 37.4% | 37.7% | 0.3% | Iowa State wins |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | Iowa State wins |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | Iowa State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 91.9% | 92.1% | 0.2% | Iowa State wins |
| Miami | ACC | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.6% | 0.2% | Oklahoma State wins |