Utah vs Cincinnati CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Utah at Cincinnati. 2026-10-31 19:45 UTC. National Impact rank: #3. Utah -6.5.
Utah playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 71.7% | 79.5% | 49.5% |
| At-large | 35.2% | 39.5% | 20.6% |
| Automatic bid | 36.5% | 38.7% | 27.6% |
| Conference title game | 66.6% | 73.4% | 48.4% |
Cincinnati playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 4.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% |
| At-large | 4.5% | 10.4% | 2.8% |
| Automatic bid | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Texas Tech: 3.5% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
- Alabama: 3.1% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
- UCLA: 1.9% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
- Kentucky: 1.8% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
- LSU: 1.5% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
Impacts if Utah wins
- Texas Tech: -0.9% change; Cincinnati wins
- Alabama: -0.7% change; Cincinnati wins
- Kentucky: -0.7% change; Cincinnati wins
- UCLA: -0.7% change; Cincinnati wins
- Georgia: -0.5% change; Cincinnati wins
Impacts if Cincinnati wins
- Texas Tech: 2.6% change; Cincinnati wins
- Alabama: 2.4% change; Cincinnati wins
- LSU: 1.4% change; Cincinnati wins
- Nebraska: 1.3% change; Cincinnati wins
- UCLA: 1.2% change; Cincinnati wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Utah wins | Cincinnati wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 79.5% | 49.5% | 30.0% | Utah wins |
| Cincinnati | Big 12 | 4.8% | 1.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | Cincinnati wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.0% | 53.5% | 3.5% | Cincinnati wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.2% | 52.3% | 3.1% | Cincinnati wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 43.6% | 45.5% | 1.9% | Cincinnati wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.1% | 38.9% | 1.8% | Cincinnati wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 44.8% | 46.3% | 1.5% | Cincinnati wins |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 1.5% | Cincinnati wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 1.1% | Cincinnati wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.4% | 61.5% | 0.9% | Utah wins |
| Florida | SEC | 18.7% | 18.3% | 19.2% | 0.9% | Cincinnati wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 81.5% | 82.3% | 0.8% | Cincinnati wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 91.8% | 92.6% | 0.8% | Cincinnati wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 37.4% | 38.1% | 0.7% | Cincinnati wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 0.6% | Cincinnati wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 0.6% | Cincinnati wins |
| SMU | ACC | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 0.6% | Cincinnati wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 95.3% | 95.3% | 95.8% | 0.5% | Cincinnati wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 0.4% | Cincinnati wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.0% | 20.4% | 0.4% | Cincinnati wins |