BYU vs Utah CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for BYU at Utah. 2026-11-07 17:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #4. Utah -4.5.
BYU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 51.4% | 80.2% | 38.5% |
| At-large | 35.8% | 52.1% | 29.3% |
| Automatic bid | 15.6% | 27.4% | 8.5% |
| Conference title game | 36.9% | 71.2% | 19.9% |
Utah playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 83.4% | 95.0% | 62.9% |
| At-large | 37.8% | 42.2% | 26.7% |
| Automatic bid | 45.6% | 51.8% | 35.2% |
| Conference title game | 80.8% | 93.3% | 58.9% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Houston: 1.7% outcome swing; Utah wins
- Ole Miss: 1.1% outcome swing; Utah wins
- Wake Forest: 1.0% outcome swing; Utah wins
- Alabama: 0.9% outcome swing; Utah wins
- Texas Tech: 0.9% outcome swing; Utah wins
Impacts if BYU wins
- Houston: -0.9% change; Utah wins
- Oklahoma State: -0.9% change; Utah wins
- Ole Miss: -0.9% change; Utah wins
- Texas Tech: -0.9% change; Utah wins
- Wake Forest: -0.8% change; Utah wins
Impacts if Utah wins
- Notre Dame: -0.9% change; BYU wins
- Houston: 0.8% change; Utah wins
- Tennessee: 0.4% change; Utah wins
- Alabama: 0.3% change; Utah wins
- Ohio State: 0.3% change; Utah wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | BYU wins | Utah wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 80.2% | 38.5% | 41.7% | BYU wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 62.9% | 95.0% | 32.1% | Utah wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 36.2% | 37.9% | 1.7% | Utah wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 49.5% | 50.6% | 1.1% | Utah wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 44.5% | 45.5% | 1.0% | Utah wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 75.9% | 76.8% | 0.9% | Utah wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 43.9% | 44.8% | 0.9% | Utah wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | Utah wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.2% | 88.9% | 0.7% | Utah wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.5% | 86.8% | 0.7% | BYU wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 25.9% | 26.6% | 0.7% | Utah wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 25.8% | 26.4% | 0.6% | Utah wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 0.6% | Utah wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 69.5% | 70.1% | 0.6% | Utah wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 48.6% | 49.1% | 0.5% | Utah wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.7% | 62.2% | 0.5% | BYU wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 0.5% | BYU wins |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | Utah wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 0.3% | BYU wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 84.7% | 85.0% | 0.3% | Utah wins |