Cincinnati vs Houston CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 10 pregame analysis for Cincinnati at Houston. 2026-11-07 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #10. Line unavailable.

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Cincinnati playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.1%0.0%

Houston playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP37.1%43.4%1.8%
At-large31.2%36.0%1.0%
Automatic bid5.9%6.7%0.1%
Conference title game13.6%16.4%1.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Alabama: 3.7% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
  2. Arizona: 3.6% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
  3. Tennessee: 3.6% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
  4. BYU: 3.5% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
  5. Ole Miss: 3.5% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins

Impacts if Cincinnati wins

  1. Tennessee: 3.2% change; Cincinnati wins
  2. Arizona: 3.1% change; Cincinnati wins
  3. Alabama: 3.0% change; Cincinnati wins
  4. BYU: 2.8% change; Cincinnati wins
  5. Ole Miss: 2.6% change; Cincinnati wins

Impacts if Houston wins

  1. Ole Miss: -0.9% change; Cincinnati wins
  2. Alabama: -0.7% change; Cincinnati wins
  3. BYU: -0.7% change; Cincinnati wins
  4. Notre Dame: -0.7% change; Cincinnati wins
  5. Arizona: -0.5% change; Cincinnati wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentCincinnati winsHouston winsSwingBetter outcome
HoustonBig 1237.1%1.8%43.4%41.6%Houston wins
AlabamaSEC76.5%79.5%75.8%3.7%Cincinnati wins
ArizonaBig 1212.4%15.5%11.9%3.6%Cincinnati wins
TennesseeSEC26.2%29.4%25.8%3.6%Cincinnati wins
BYUBig 1251.4%54.2%50.7%3.5%Cincinnati wins
Ole MissSEC50.4%53.0%49.5%3.5%Cincinnati wins
Wake ForestACC45.3%47.7%45.0%2.7%Cincinnati wins
Ohio StateBig Ten69.8%71.9%69.6%2.3%Cincinnati wins
LSUSEC49.1%51.2%49.1%2.1%Cincinnati wins
Notre DameFBS Independents87.7%89.1%87.0%2.1%Cincinnati wins
MissouriSEC7.0%8.4%6.7%1.7%Cincinnati wins
FloridaSEC4.5%5.7%4.1%1.6%Cincinnati wins
IowaBig Ten12.7%13.7%12.2%1.5%Cincinnati wins
UCLABig Ten45.5%46.9%45.4%1.5%Cincinnati wins
IndianaBig Ten88.9%90.2%88.8%1.4%Cincinnati wins
USCBig Ten9.1%10.1%9.1%1.0%Cincinnati wins
KentuckySEC26.3%27.2%26.3%0.9%Cincinnati wins
Oklahoma StateBig 122.1%2.8%1.9%0.9%Cincinnati wins
OregonBig Ten6.2%6.9%6.0%0.9%Cincinnati wins
GeorgiaSEC84.9%85.4%84.9%0.5%Cincinnati wins