Iowa State vs Baylor CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 10 pregame analysis for Iowa State at Baylor. 2026-11-07 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #32. Line unavailable.

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Iowa State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.4%0.0%

Baylor playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP1.7%1.8%0.1%
Automatic bid1.7%1.8%0.1%
Conference title game3.5%4.0%0.2%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Arizona: 1.7% outcome swing; Iowa State wins
  2. Iowa: 0.9% outcome swing; Iowa State wins
  3. Utah: 0.9% outcome swing; Iowa State wins
  4. LSU: 0.7% outcome swing; Baylor wins
  5. Alabama: 0.6% outcome swing; Baylor wins

Impacts if Iowa State wins

  1. Arizona: 1.6% change; Iowa State wins
  2. Iowa: 0.9% change; Iowa State wins
  3. Utah: 0.8% change; Iowa State wins
  4. Tennessee: -0.6% change; Baylor wins
  5. BYU: 0.5% change; Iowa State wins

Impacts if Baylor wins

  1. Alabama: 0.2% change; Baylor wins
  2. LSU: 0.2% change; Baylor wins
  3. Texas Tech: -0.2% change; Iowa State wins
  4. UCLA: -0.2% change; Iowa State wins
  5. Arizona: -0.1% change; Iowa State wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentIowa State winsBaylor winsSwingBetter outcome
ArizonaBig 1212.4%14.0%12.3%1.7%Iowa State wins
BaylorBig 121.7%0.1%1.8%1.7%Baylor wins
IowaBig Ten12.7%13.6%12.7%0.9%Iowa State wins
UtahBig 1283.4%84.2%83.3%0.9%Iowa State wins
LSUSEC49.1%48.6%49.3%0.7%Baylor wins
AlabamaSEC76.5%76.1%76.7%0.6%Baylor wins
BYUBig 1251.4%51.9%51.3%0.6%Iowa State wins
HoustonBig 1237.1%36.6%37.2%0.6%Baylor wins
TennesseeSEC26.2%25.6%26.2%0.6%Baylor wins
Ohio StateBig Ten69.8%70.2%69.7%0.5%Iowa State wins
Oklahoma StateBig 122.1%1.7%2.2%0.5%Baylor wins
Ole MissSEC50.4%50.2%50.5%0.3%Baylor wins
FloridaSEC4.5%4.4%4.6%0.2%Baylor wins
IndianaBig Ten88.9%89.0%88.8%0.2%Iowa State wins
New MexicoMountain West18.1%17.9%18.1%0.2%Baylor wins
Texas TechBig 1244.8%44.8%44.6%0.2%Iowa State wins
UCLABig Ten45.5%45.5%45.3%0.2%Iowa State wins
Boise StatePac-1256.8%56.9%56.8%0.1%Iowa State wins
KentuckySEC26.3%26.4%26.3%0.1%Iowa State wins
MiamiACC98.7%98.6%98.7%0.1%Baylor wins