TCU vs Arizona CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for TCU at Arizona. 2026-11-07 03:15 UTC. National Impact rank: #17. Arizona -8.5.
TCU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Arizona playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 12.4% | 14.7% | 0.1% |
| At-large | 7.5% | 9.5% | 0.4% |
| Automatic bid | 4.9% | 5.6% | 0.1% |
| Conference title game | 9.4% | 11.1% | 0.1% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ole Miss: 1.6% outcome swing; TCU wins
- LSU: 1.4% outcome swing; TCU wins
- Florida: 1.1% outcome swing; TCU wins
- Utah: 1.1% outcome swing; TCU wins
- Wake Forest: 1.1% outcome swing; TCU wins
Impacts if TCU wins
- Ole Miss: 1.3% change; TCU wins
- LSU: 1.2% change; TCU wins
- Notre Dame: 1.0% change; TCU wins
- Wake Forest: 1.0% change; TCU wins
- BYU: -0.9% change; Arizona wins
Impacts if Arizona wins
- Florida: -0.3% change; TCU wins
- Ole Miss: -0.3% change; TCU wins
- Utah: -0.3% change; TCU wins
- LSU: -0.2% change; TCU wins
- Ohio State: -0.2% change; TCU wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | TCU wins | Arizona wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 0.1% | 14.7% | 14.6% | Arizona wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 51.7% | 50.1% | 1.6% | TCU wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 50.3% | 48.9% | 1.4% | TCU wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.1% | TCU wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 84.2% | 83.1% | 1.1% | TCU wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 46.3% | 45.2% | 1.1% | TCU wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 88.7% | 87.7% | 1.0% | TCU wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 27.0% | 26.0% | 1.0% | TCU wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 45.6% | 44.6% | 1.0% | TCU wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 50.5% | 51.4% | 0.9% | Arizona wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 77.3% | 76.5% | 0.8% | TCU wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 85.7% | 84.9% | 0.8% | TCU wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 70.3% | 69.6% | 0.7% | TCU wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.6% | 62.0% | 0.6% | TCU wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 37.6% | 37.1% | 0.5% | TCU wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 0.5% | TCU wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.8% | 45.3% | 0.5% | TCU wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 89.3% | 88.9% | 0.4% | TCU wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 0.3% | TCU wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 0.3% | TCU wins |