Arizona State vs UCF CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Arizona State at UCF. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #28. Line unavailable.
Arizona State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
UCF playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Arizona: 1.3% outcome swing; Arizona State wins
- Texas Tech: 1.3% outcome swing; Arizona State wins
- Houston: 1.1% outcome swing; UCF wins
- Iowa: 0.6% outcome swing; UCF wins
- New Mexico: 0.4% outcome swing; Arizona State wins
Impacts if Arizona State wins
- Texas Tech: 0.8% change; Arizona State wins
- Houston: -0.7% change; UCF wins
- Arizona: 0.6% change; Arizona State wins
- Iowa: -0.3% change; UCF wins
- New Mexico: 0.2% change; Arizona State wins
Impacts if UCF wins
- Arizona: -0.7% change; Arizona State wins
- Texas Tech: -0.5% change; Arizona State wins
- Houston: 0.4% change; UCF wins
- Iowa: 0.3% change; UCF wins
- BYU: 0.2% change; UCF wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Arizona State wins | UCF wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.9% | 16.6% | 1.3% | Arizona State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 35.7% | 34.4% | 1.3% | Arizona State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 44.6% | 45.7% | 1.1% | UCF wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.4% | 25.0% | 0.6% | UCF wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 28.1% | 27.7% | 0.4% | Arizona State wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 0.3% | UCF wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.0% | 94.3% | 0.3% | UCF wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.7% | 46.0% | 0.3% | UCF wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.3% | 42.5% | 0.2% | UCF wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 0.2% | Arizona State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.2% | 21.4% | 0.2% | UCF wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 0.2% | Arizona State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.6% | 73.4% | 0.2% | Arizona State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.3% | 66.4% | 0.1% | UCF wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 81.9% | 82.0% | 0.1% | UCF wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.1% | UCF wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.8% | 18.7% | 0.1% | Arizona State wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.3% | 98.4% | 0.1% | UCF wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | Arizona State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.3% | 28.4% | 0.1% | UCF wins |