Baylor vs BYU CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Baylor at BYU. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #3. BYU -6.5.
Baylor playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 1.8% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 1.8% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 5.1% | 14.4% | 0.1% |
BYU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 42.3% | 57.9% | 1.0% |
| At-large | 34.7% | 48.3% | 1.1% |
| Automatic bid | 7.6% | 10.1% | 0.3% |
| Conference title game | 18.5% | 25.7% | 0.5% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Texas Tech: 6.1% outcome swing; Baylor wins
- Oregon: 5.6% outcome swing; Baylor wins
- Tennessee: 5.1% outcome swing; Baylor wins
- Ole Miss: 5.0% outcome swing; Baylor wins
- Iowa: 4.4% outcome swing; Baylor wins
Impacts if Baylor wins
- Texas Tech: 4.5% change; Baylor wins
- Oregon: 4.3% change; Baylor wins
- Ole Miss: 3.7% change; Baylor wins
- Iowa: 3.5% change; Baylor wins
- Tennessee: 3.3% change; Baylor wins
Impacts if BYU wins
- Tennessee: -1.8% change; Baylor wins
- Texas Tech: -1.6% change; Baylor wins
- Ole Miss: -1.3% change; Baylor wins
- Oregon: -1.3% change; Baylor wins
- Texas: -1.1% change; Baylor wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Baylor wins | BYU wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 1.0% | 57.9% | 56.9% | BYU wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 39.4% | 33.3% | 6.1% | Baylor wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 32.6% | 27.0% | 5.6% | Baylor wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 57.2% | 52.1% | 5.1% | Baylor wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 15.2% | 10.2% | 5.0% | Baylor wins |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 1.8% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 4.6% | Baylor wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 28.2% | 23.8% | 4.4% | Baylor wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 76.7% | 72.3% | 4.4% | Baylor wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 21.9% | 18.0% | 3.9% | Baylor wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 23.9% | 20.3% | 3.6% | Baylor wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 83.9% | 81.0% | 2.9% | Baylor wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 47.1% | 44.9% | 2.2% | Baylor wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 47.3% | 45.2% | 2.1% | Baylor wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 66.5% | 65.0% | 1.5% | Baylor wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 1.2% | Baylor wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% | Baylor wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 97.2% | 96.4% | 0.8% | Baylor wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 28.5% | 27.7% | 0.8% | Baylor wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 0.6% | Baylor wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.5% | 17.0% | 0.5% | Baylor wins |