Cincinnati vs Iowa State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Cincinnati at Iowa State. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #23. Line unavailable.
Cincinnati playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Iowa State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Iowa: 2.6% outcome swing; Iowa State wins
- Texas Tech: 1.1% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
- Arizona: 0.8% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
- Houston: 0.7% outcome swing; Cincinnati wins
- Ohio State: 0.4% outcome swing; Iowa State wins
Impacts if Cincinnati wins
- Iowa: -1.1% change; Iowa State wins
- Houston: 0.5% change; Cincinnati wins
- Texas Tech: 0.3% change; Cincinnati wins
- Arizona: 0.2% change; Cincinnati wins
- Ohio State: -0.2% change; Iowa State wins
Impacts if Iowa State wins
- Iowa: 1.5% change; Iowa State wins
- Texas Tech: -0.8% change; Cincinnati wins
- Arizona: -0.6% change; Cincinnati wins
- BYU: 0.2% change; Iowa State wins
- Houston: -0.2% change; Cincinnati wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Cincinnati wins | Iowa State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 23.6% | 26.2% | 2.6% | Iowa State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 35.2% | 34.1% | 1.1% | Cincinnati wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.5% | 16.7% | 0.8% | Cincinnati wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.8% | 45.1% | 0.7% | Cincinnati wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.1% | 21.5% | 0.4% | Iowa State wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 0.4% | Cincinnati wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.2% | 28.5% | 0.3% | Iowa State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.4% | 94.1% | 0.3% | Cincinnati wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.3% | 42.5% | 0.2% | Iowa State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 81.9% | 82.1% | 0.2% | Iowa State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.5% | 0.2% | Cincinnati wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.5% | 98.3% | 0.2% | Cincinnati wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.9% | 53.7% | 0.2% | Cincinnati wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.3% | 65.5% | 0.2% | Iowa State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.6% | 96.7% | 0.1% | Iowa State wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | Iowa State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.8% | 27.9% | 0.1% | Iowa State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 0.1% | Cincinnati wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 0.1% | Iowa State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.8% | 45.7% | 0.1% | Cincinnati wins |