Houston vs Colorado CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Houston at Colorado. 2026-11-14 03:15 UTC. National Impact rank: #11. Houston -10.5.

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Houston playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP45.3%51.3%2.7%
At-large36.5%41.0%1.5%
Automatic bid8.8%9.5%0.4%
Conference title game22.3%25.2%1.3%

Colorado playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Iowa: 4.8% outcome swing; Colorado wins
  2. Texas: 4.5% outcome swing; Colorado wins
  3. Oregon: 4.4% outcome swing; Colorado wins
  4. Tennessee: 4.1% outcome swing; Colorado wins
  5. Ole Miss: 4.0% outcome swing; Colorado wins

Impacts if Houston wins

  1. Tennessee: -0.7% change; Colorado wins
  2. Ole Miss: -0.6% change; Colorado wins
  3. Iowa: -0.5% change; Colorado wins
  4. Ohio State: -0.5% change; Colorado wins
  5. Oregon: -0.5% change; Colorado wins

Impacts if Colorado wins

  1. Iowa: 4.3% change; Colorado wins
  2. Texas: 4.0% change; Colorado wins
  3. Oregon: 3.9% change; Colorado wins
  4. Ole Miss: 3.4% change; Colorado wins
  5. Tennessee: 3.4% change; Colorado wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentHouston winsColorado winsSwingBetter outcome
HoustonBig 1245.3%51.3%2.7%48.6%Houston wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%24.2%29.0%4.8%Colorado wins
TexasSEC73.4%72.9%77.4%4.5%Colorado wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%27.8%32.2%4.4%Colorado wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%53.2%57.3%4.1%Colorado wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%10.9%14.9%4.0%Colorado wins
Oklahoma StateBig 123.7%3.5%6.8%3.3%Colorado wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%20.8%24.0%3.2%Colorado wins
LSUSEC18.7%18.3%21.4%3.1%Colorado wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%81.7%84.4%2.7%Colorado wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%45.4%47.7%2.3%Colorado wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.2%19.4%2.2%Colorado wins
BYUBig 1242.3%42.0%44.2%2.2%Colorado wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%65.1%67.0%1.9%Colorado wins
Texas TechBig 1234.9%34.7%36.2%1.5%Colorado wins
KentuckySEC13.4%13.2%14.2%1.0%Colorado wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.6%97.3%0.7%Colorado wins
USCBig Ten9.8%9.7%10.4%0.7%Colorado wins
South CarolinaSEC10.6%10.5%11.1%0.6%Colorado wins
New MexicoMountain West27.9%27.8%28.3%0.5%Colorado wins