Kansas State vs TCU CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Kansas State at TCU. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #33. Line unavailable.
Kansas State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
TCU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- BYU: 1.0% outcome swing; TCU wins
- Texas Tech: 0.8% outcome swing; TCU wins
- Houston: 0.7% outcome swing; Kansas State wins
- Utah: 0.7% outcome swing; TCU wins
- Iowa: 0.6% outcome swing; Kansas State wins
Impacts if Kansas State wins
- Houston: 0.7% change; Kansas State wins
- BYU: -0.6% change; TCU wins
- Texas Tech: -0.6% change; TCU wins
- Utah: -0.5% change; TCU wins
- Iowa: 0.4% change; Kansas State wins
Impacts if TCU wins
- BYU: 0.4% change; TCU wins
- Iowa: -0.2% change; Kansas State wins
- Ohio State: -0.2% change; Kansas State wins
- Texas: -0.2% change; Kansas State wins
- Texas Tech: 0.2% change; TCU wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Kansas State wins | TCU wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 41.7% | 42.7% | 1.0% | TCU wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.3% | 35.1% | 0.8% | TCU wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 46.0% | 45.3% | 0.7% | Kansas State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 93.7% | 94.4% | 0.7% | TCU wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 25.1% | 24.5% | 0.6% | Kansas State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.7% | 73.2% | 0.5% | Kansas State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.7% | 28.3% | 0.4% | Kansas State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.4% | 21.1% | 0.3% | Kansas State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.5% | 66.3% | 0.2% | Kansas State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.8% | 18.6% | 0.2% | Kansas State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.7% | 27.9% | 0.2% | TCU wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 0.2% | Kansas State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.7% | 96.6% | 0.1% | Kansas State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.1% | 82.0% | 0.1% | Kansas State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 0.1% | TCU wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.1% | TCU wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.3% | 98.4% | 0.1% | TCU wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.1% | Kansas State wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 0.1% | TCU wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.3% | 65.2% | 0.1% | Kansas State wins |