Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Texas Tech at Oklahoma State. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #6. Oklahoma State -2.5.

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Texas Tech playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP34.9%56.5%11.1%
At-large15.4%28.3%3.9%
Automatic bid19.5%29.0%8.0%
Conference title game42.1%68.2%16.2%

Oklahoma State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP3.7%6.2%0.0%
Automatic bid3.7%6.2%0.0%
Conference title game10.0%19.3%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Oregon: 5.7% outcome swing; Oklahoma State wins
  2. Iowa: 3.8% outcome swing; Oklahoma State wins
  3. Texas: 3.7% outcome swing; Oklahoma State wins
  4. Tennessee: 3.5% outcome swing; Oklahoma State wins
  5. LSU: 2.9% outcome swing; Oklahoma State wins

Impacts if Texas Tech wins

  1. Oregon: -2.6% change; Oklahoma State wins
  2. Iowa: -2.0% change; Oklahoma State wins
  3. Tennessee: -1.9% change; Oklahoma State wins
  4. Texas: -1.6% change; Oklahoma State wins
  5. LSU: -1.3% change; Oklahoma State wins

Impacts if Oklahoma State wins

  1. Oregon: 3.1% change; Oklahoma State wins
  2. Texas: 2.1% change; Oklahoma State wins
  3. Iowa: 1.8% change; Oklahoma State wins
  4. LSU: 1.6% change; Oklahoma State wins
  5. Ohio State: 1.6% change; Oklahoma State wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentTexas Tech winsOklahoma State winsSwingBetter outcome
Texas TechBig 1234.9%56.5%11.1%45.4%Texas Tech wins
Oklahoma StateBig 123.7%0.0%6.2%6.2%Oklahoma State wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%25.7%31.4%5.7%Oklahoma State wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%22.7%26.5%3.8%Oklahoma State wins
TexasSEC73.4%71.8%75.5%3.7%Oklahoma State wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%52.0%55.5%3.5%Oklahoma State wins
LSUSEC18.7%17.4%20.3%2.9%Oklahoma State wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%20.3%22.9%2.6%Oklahoma State wins
BYUBig 1242.3%41.2%43.5%2.3%Oklahoma State wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%80.8%83.1%2.3%Oklahoma State wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%10.6%12.7%2.1%Oklahoma State wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%44.8%46.8%2.0%Oklahoma State wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%64.5%66.4%1.9%Oklahoma State wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%44.6%46.3%1.7%Oklahoma State wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.3%97.0%0.7%Oklahoma State wins
BaylorBig 121.8%1.5%2.2%0.7%Oklahoma State wins
South CarolinaSEC10.6%10.4%11.1%0.7%Oklahoma State wins
KentuckySEC13.4%13.0%13.6%0.6%Oklahoma State wins
USCBig Ten9.8%9.6%10.2%0.6%Oklahoma State wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.0%17.4%0.4%Oklahoma State wins