Utah vs Arizona CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Utah at Arizona. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #8. Utah -2.5.
Utah playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 94.2% | 99.2% | 88.4% |
| At-large | 39.9% | 40.6% | 38.6% |
| Automatic bid | 54.3% | 58.7% | 49.9% |
| Conference title game | 91.0% | 99.3% | 81.2% |
Arizona playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 17.3% | 40.9% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 13.1% | 33.5% | 1.2% |
| Automatic bid | 4.2% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 10.8% | 23.3% | 0.1% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Oregon: 4.0% outcome swing; Utah wins
- Tennessee: 3.4% outcome swing; Utah wins
- Ole Miss: 3.3% outcome swing; Utah wins
- Ohio State: 3.0% outcome swing; Utah wins
- Texas: 2.5% outcome swing; Utah wins
Impacts if Utah wins
- Oregon: 2.0% change; Utah wins
- Ole Miss: 1.2% change; Utah wins
- Ohio State: 1.1% change; Utah wins
- Texas: 1.0% change; Utah wins
- Tennessee: 0.9% change; Utah wins
Impacts if Arizona wins
- Tennessee: -2.5% change; Utah wins
- Ole Miss: -2.1% change; Utah wins
- Oregon: -2.0% change; Utah wins
- Ohio State: -1.9% change; Utah wins
- Texas: -1.5% change; Utah wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Utah wins | Arizona wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 0.0% | 40.9% | 40.9% | Arizona wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 99.2% | 88.4% | 10.8% | Utah wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 30.3% | 26.3% | 4.0% | Utah wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 54.8% | 51.4% | 3.4% | Utah wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | Utah wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 22.4% | 19.4% | 3.0% | Utah wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 74.4% | 71.9% | 2.5% | Utah wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.8% | 80.7% | 2.1% | Utah wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.1% | 36.2% | 2.1% | Arizona wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 46.4% | 44.3% | 2.1% | Utah wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 19.4% | 17.8% | 1.6% | Utah wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 46.1% | 44.6% | 1.5% | Utah wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.9% | 64.5% | 1.4% | Utah wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 25.3% | 24.1% | 1.2% | Utah wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 1.1% | Utah wins |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | Utah wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% | Utah wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.9% | 96.3% | 0.6% | Utah wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.8% | 42.3% | 0.5% | Utah wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 28.2% | 27.7% | 0.5% | Utah wins |