South Carolina vs Arkansas CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for South Carolina at Arkansas. 2026-11-15 00:45 UTC. National Impact rank: #17. South Carolina -8.5.

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South Carolina playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP10.6%12.6%0.0%
At-large10.5%12.7%0.1%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.1%0.1%0.0%

Arkansas playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Texas: 2.5% outcome swing; Arkansas wins
  2. LSU: 1.8% outcome swing; Arkansas wins
  3. Oregon: 1.2% outcome swing; Arkansas wins
  4. Iowa: 1.0% outcome swing; Arkansas wins
  5. Arizona: 0.9% outcome swing; Arkansas wins

Impacts if South Carolina wins

  1. Texas: -0.3% change; Arkansas wins
  2. Utah: -0.3% change; Arkansas wins
  3. Arizona: -0.2% change; Arkansas wins
  4. BYU: -0.2% change; Arkansas wins
  5. Iowa: -0.2% change; Arkansas wins

Impacts if Arkansas wins

  1. Texas: 2.2% change; Arkansas wins
  2. LSU: 1.6% change; Arkansas wins
  3. Oregon: 1.0% change; Arkansas wins
  4. Iowa: 0.8% change; Arkansas wins
  5. Arizona: 0.7% change; Arkansas wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentSouth Carolina winsArkansas winsSwingBetter outcome
South CarolinaSEC10.6%12.6%0.0%12.6%South Carolina wins
TexasSEC73.4%73.1%75.6%2.5%Arkansas wins
LSUSEC18.7%18.5%20.3%1.8%Arkansas wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%28.1%29.3%1.2%Arkansas wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%24.5%25.5%1.0%Arkansas wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.1%18.0%0.9%Arkansas wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%11.4%12.2%0.8%Arkansas wins
UtahBig 1294.2%93.9%94.7%0.8%Arkansas wins
BYUBig 1242.3%42.1%42.8%0.7%Arkansas wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%21.2%21.9%0.7%Arkansas wins
Texas TechBig 1234.9%34.8%35.4%0.6%Arkansas wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%45.2%45.7%0.5%Arkansas wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%82.0%82.5%0.5%Arkansas wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%65.2%65.7%0.5%Arkansas wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%54.1%53.8%0.3%South Carolina wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.6%96.4%0.2%South Carolina wins
GeorgiaSEC98.6%98.6%98.8%0.2%Arkansas wins
MissouriSEC0.7%0.6%0.8%0.2%Arkansas wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%45.7%45.9%0.2%Arkansas wins
KentuckySEC13.4%13.4%13.5%0.1%Arkansas wins