Missouri vs Georgia CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Missouri at Georgia. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #20. Georgia -13.5.

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Missouri playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.7%5.0%0.0%
At-large0.7%5.4%0.4%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.6%0.0%

Georgia playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP98.6%99.8%85.3%
At-large42.7%42.9%40.6%
Automatic bid55.9%56.6%44.4%
Conference title game94.0%96.4%72.2%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Texas: 3.3% outcome swing; Missouri wins
  2. Ole Miss: 2.4% outcome swing; Missouri wins
  3. Iowa: 1.1% outcome swing; Missouri wins
  4. LSU: 1.0% outcome swing; Missouri wins
  5. BYU: 0.7% outcome swing; Missouri wins

Impacts if Missouri wins

  1. Texas: 3.0% change; Missouri wins
  2. Ole Miss: 2.1% change; Missouri wins
  3. Iowa: 1.1% change; Missouri wins
  4. LSU: 1.0% change; Missouri wins
  5. Oregon: 0.8% change; Missouri wins

Impacts if Georgia wins

  1. Ole Miss: -0.3% change; Missouri wins
  2. Texas: -0.3% change; Missouri wins
  3. Houston: 0.2% change; Georgia wins
  4. Alabama: 0.1% change; Georgia wins
  5. Arizona: -0.1% change; Missouri wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentMissouri winsGeorgia winsSwingBetter outcome
GeorgiaSEC98.6%85.3%99.8%14.5%Georgia wins
MissouriSEC0.7%5.0%0.0%5.0%Missouri wins
TexasSEC73.4%76.4%73.1%3.3%Missouri wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%13.6%11.2%2.4%Missouri wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%25.8%24.7%1.1%Missouri wins
LSUSEC18.7%19.7%18.7%1.0%Missouri wins
BYUBig 1242.3%42.9%42.2%0.7%Missouri wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%29.1%28.4%0.7%Missouri wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.7%17.2%0.5%Missouri wins
KentuckySEC13.4%13.9%13.4%0.5%Missouri wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.4%96.7%0.3%Georgia wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%82.3%82.0%0.3%Missouri wins
New MexicoMountain West27.9%27.6%27.9%0.3%Georgia wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%21.0%21.3%0.3%Georgia wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%53.6%53.9%0.3%Georgia wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%45.5%45.8%0.3%Georgia wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%45.3%45.5%0.2%Georgia wins
LibertyConference USA3.2%3.0%3.2%0.2%Georgia wins
OklahomaSEC0.0%0.2%0.0%0.2%Missouri wins
Boise StatePac-1266.4%66.5%66.4%0.1%Missouri wins