Florida vs Kentucky CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Florida at Kentucky. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #10. Kentucky -2.5.

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Florida playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Kentucky playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP13.4%20.9%1.5%
At-large12.5%20.7%2.4%
Automatic bid0.9%1.2%0.1%
Conference title game6.1%9.8%0.3%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Texas: 5.4% outcome swing; Florida wins
  2. Tennessee: 5.1% outcome swing; Kentucky wins
  3. Ole Miss: 4.3% outcome swing; Florida wins
  4. Iowa: 2.4% outcome swing; Florida wins
  5. Oregon: 2.0% outcome swing; Florida wins

Impacts if Florida wins

  1. Texas: 3.3% change; Florida wins
  2. Tennessee: -2.8% change; Kentucky wins
  3. Ole Miss: 2.5% change; Florida wins
  4. Iowa: 1.5% change; Florida wins
  5. Ohio State: 1.1% change; Florida wins

Impacts if Kentucky wins

  1. Tennessee: 2.3% change; Kentucky wins
  2. Texas: -2.1% change; Florida wins
  3. Ole Miss: -1.8% change; Florida wins
  4. Iowa: -0.9% change; Florida wins
  5. Oregon: -0.9% change; Florida wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentFlorida winsKentucky winsSwingBetter outcome
KentuckySEC13.4%1.5%20.9%19.4%Kentucky wins
TexasSEC73.4%76.7%71.3%5.4%Florida wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%51.1%56.2%5.1%Kentucky wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%14.0%9.7%4.3%Florida wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%26.2%23.8%2.4%Florida wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%29.4%27.4%2.0%Florida wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%22.4%20.7%1.7%Florida wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%66.2%64.7%1.5%Florida wins
BYUBig 1242.3%43.0%41.6%1.4%Florida wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%82.9%81.6%1.3%Florida wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%46.5%45.2%1.3%Florida wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.8%16.6%1.2%Florida wins
Texas TechBig 1234.9%35.5%34.6%0.9%Florida wins
LSUSEC18.7%18.8%19.5%0.7%Kentucky wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%45.7%45.1%0.6%Florida wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.4%96.9%0.5%Kentucky wins
MiamiACC98.4%98.6%98.2%0.4%Florida wins
South CarolinaSEC10.6%10.7%10.3%0.4%Florida wins
UtahBig 1294.2%94.4%94.0%0.4%Florida wins
GeorgiaSEC98.6%98.7%98.5%0.2%Florida wins