Texas vs LSU CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Texas at LSU. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #5. LSU -4.5.
Texas playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 73.4% | 93.9% | 56.2% |
| At-large | 63.6% | 74.1% | 54.8% |
| Automatic bid | 9.8% | 18.3% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 23.7% | 47.9% | 0.0% |
LSU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 18.7% | 34.4% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 18.6% | 34.2% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ohio State: 3.0% outcome swing; Texas wins
- BYU: 2.1% outcome swing; LSU wins
- Kentucky: 1.1% outcome swing; LSU wins
- Ole Miss: 1.0% outcome swing; LSU wins
- Oregon: 0.9% outcome swing; Texas wins
Impacts if Texas wins
- Ohio State: 1.7% change; Texas wins
- Oregon: 1.0% change; Texas wins
- BYU: -0.9% change; LSU wins
- Kentucky: -0.8% change; LSU wins
- Ole Miss: -0.8% change; LSU wins
Impacts if LSU wins
- Ohio State: -1.3% change; Texas wins
- BYU: 1.2% change; LSU wins
- Iowa: 0.8% change; LSU wins
- Alabama: 0.6% change; LSU wins
- Houston: 0.4% change; LSU wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Texas wins | LSU wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 93.9% | 56.2% | 37.7% | Texas wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 0.0% | 34.4% | 34.4% | LSU wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 23.0% | 20.0% | 3.0% | Texas wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 41.4% | 43.5% | 2.1% | LSU wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 1.1% | LSU wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 1.0% | LSU wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 29.3% | 28.4% | 0.9% | Texas wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.4% | 97.2% | 0.8% | LSU wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.7% | 25.5% | 0.8% | LSU wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.2% | 45.7% | 0.5% | LSU wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 0.5% | LSU wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 0.4% | LSU wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.6% | 66.2% | 0.4% | Texas wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 35.2% | 34.8% | 0.4% | Texas wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 81.8% | 82.0% | 0.2% | LSU wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.3% | 98.5% | 0.2% | LSU wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | Texas wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.2% | 65.4% | 0.2% | LSU wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 0.2% | Texas wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 93.9% | 94.1% | 0.2% | LSU wins |