Auburn vs Mississippi State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Auburn at Mississippi State. 2026-11-14 17:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #29. Line unavailable.
Auburn playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Mississippi State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Tennessee: 1.8% outcome swing; Auburn wins
- Texas: 1.6% outcome swing; Mississippi State wins
- BYU: 0.4% outcome swing; Auburn wins
- Iowa: 0.3% outcome swing; Mississippi State wins
- Ohio State: 0.3% outcome swing; Mississippi State wins
Impacts if Auburn wins
- Tennessee: 1.0% change; Auburn wins
- Texas: -0.9% change; Mississippi State wins
- BYU: 0.2% change; Auburn wins
- Houston: 0.2% change; Auburn wins
- Ohio State: -0.2% change; Mississippi State wins
Impacts if Mississippi State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Auburn wins | Mississippi State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 54.9% | 53.1% | 1.8% | Auburn wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 72.5% | 74.1% | 1.6% | Mississippi State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.5% | 42.1% | 0.4% | Auburn wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.6% | 24.9% | 0.3% | Mississippi State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.1% | 21.4% | 0.3% | Mississippi State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.5% | 45.3% | 0.2% | Auburn wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 0.2% | Mississippi State wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 0.2% | Mississippi State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 94.1% | 0.2% | Auburn wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.7% | 96.6% | 0.1% | Auburn wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.3% | 17.4% | 0.1% | Mississippi State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 98.6% | 98.6% | 98.5% | 0.1% | Auburn wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 81.9% | 82.0% | 0.1% | Mississippi State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.6% | 0.1% | Auburn wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | Mississippi State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.8% | 27.9% | 0.1% | Mississippi State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.4% | 28.5% | 0.1% | Mississippi State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.3% | 65.2% | 0.1% | Auburn wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.8% | 45.7% | 0.1% | Auburn wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |